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California's top-two primary tests Democratic statewide dominance

California's top-two primary tests Democratic statewide dominance

Rule Changes

Fragmented Democratic field of 61 candidates faces consolidated Republican vote in race to replace Newsom

June 2nd, 2026: California holds top-two gubernatorial primary

Overview

Updated Jun 2

Republicans haven't won a statewide race in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2006 reelection. Today's gubernatorial primary could put them on the November ballot anyway.

Under California's top-two system, the two highest finishers advance to the general election regardless of party. Democrat Xavier Becerra leads at 23%, but Tom Steyer (15%) and Katie Porter (12%) are splitting the rest of the Democratic vote. Republicans Steve Hilton (20%) and Chad Bianco (13%) are not.

Why it matters

If two Republicans advance, Democrats lose the largest state's governor's race before November ballots are even printed.

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Key Indicators

61
Candidates on the ballot
California's top-two primary allows any candidate from any party to compete in the same race.
20 years
Since last GOP statewide win
Schwarzenegger's 2006 reelection was the last Republican statewide victory in California.
50%
Combined Democratic polling
Becerra, Steyer, and Porter together command half the projected vote, split three ways.
33%
Combined Republican polling
Hilton and Bianco together hold a third of the projected vote, split two ways.

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People Involved

Xavier Becerra
Xavier Becerra
Former US Health and Human Services Secretary; Democratic candidate for governor
Polling first at 23%
 Steve Hilton
Steve Hilton
Former Fox News host; Republican candidate for governor
Polling second at 20%
 Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer
Hedge fund founder and climate activist; Democratic candidate for governor
Polling third at 15%
 Chad Bianco
Chad Bianco
Riverside County Sheriff; Republican candidate for governor
Polling fourth at 13%
 Katie Porter
Katie Porter
Former US Representative; Democratic candidate for governor
Polling fifth at 12%
 Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom
Governor of California, term-limited
Leaving office January 2027

Organizations Involved

California Secretary of State
California Secretary of State
State election authority
Administering and certifying the primary

The office runs California elections and certifies official results.
California Republican Party
California Republican Party
State political party
Coordinating between Hilton and Bianco campaigns

The state party has not produced a statewide winner since 2006.
California Democratic Party
California Democratic Party
State political party
Watching the vote split it failed to prevent

The dominant party in California politics, now risking a top-two shutout.

Timeline

June 2010 June 2026

11 events Latest: June 2nd, 2026 · 3 months ago Showing 8 of 11
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. California holds top-two gubernatorial primary

    Latest Election

    Voters cast ballots in a 61-candidate primary that could send two Republicans to November for the first time since the top-two system began.

  2. Final pre-primary polls

    Polling

    Becerra 23%, Hilton 20%, Steyer 15%, Bianco 13%, Porter 12%. Democrats split three ways; Republicans split two.

  3. Trump endorses Bianco

    Endorsement

    President Trump's primary endorsement consolidates conservative voters but does not push Bianco past Hilton.

  4. Internal Democratic memo warns of shutout risk

    Strategy

    A leaked party memo warns that three Democrats and two Republicans could push the GOP into both runoff slots.

  5. State Democrats decline to endorse

    Party Decision

    California Democratic Party convention votes against a pre-primary endorsement, leaving the field open.

  6. Steyer enters Democratic primary

    Campaign Launch

    Billionaire Tom Steyer announces, deepening the Democratic vote split.

  7. Becerra launches campaign

    Campaign Launch

    Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra enters with Newsom-world consultants and labor backing.

  8. Porter announces second statewide bid

    Campaign Launch

    Katie Porter declares months after losing the 2024 US Senate primary to Adam Schiff.

  9. Bianco enters as second GOP candidate

    Campaign Launch

    Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announces, splitting the Republican field.

  10. Hilton announces candidacy

    Campaign Launch

    Steve Hilton becomes the first major Republican to enter the race, announcing on Fox News.

  11. Voters approve Proposition 14

    Rule Change

    California adopts the top-two primary system. Starting in 2012, all candidates run on the same primary ballot and the top two advance regardless of party.

Scenarios

1

Becerra and Hilton advance to November runoff

Likely Resolves by Jul 10, 2026

Discussed by: Politico California, Los Angeles Times, FiveThirtyEight

The polling leaders each finish first in their party and advance. This is the outcome most consistent with the final pre-primary polls and matches the pattern of every California gubernatorial primary since the top-two system began.

2

Two Republicans advance, locking Democrats out of the runoff

Unlikely Resolves by Jul 10, 2026

Discussed by: San Francisco Chronicle, CalMatters, Cook Political Report

Steyer and Porter split enough Democratic vote that Bianco finishes ahead of Becerra. Hilton and Bianco both advance, guaranteeing a Republican governor-elect in November for the first time since 2006. The internal Democratic memo from January flagged this exact path.

3

Two Democrats advance, shutting Republicans out again

Possible Resolves by Jul 10, 2026

Discussed by: Los Angeles Times, Sacramento Bee

Late Steyer spending lifts him past Hilton, producing a Becerra-Steyer or Becerra-Porter November matchup. This would repeat the 2016 US Senate dynamic, when Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez both advanced and no Republican made the runoff. It requires the GOP vote staying split below 20% per candidate.

4

Porter finishes ahead of Steyer for the progressive lane

Unlikely Resolves by Jul 10, 2026

Discussed by: The Sacramento Bee, CalMatters

Porter's ground game and name recognition from her 2024 Senate run beat Steyer's television spending. This would not change who advances to November but would settle the Democratic Party's progressive wing leadership going into the next cycle.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 2003

California gubernatorial recall (2003)

Voters recalled Democratic Governor Gray Davis and elected Arnold Schwarzenegger to replace him on the same ballot. The recall election drew 135 candidates and was the first successful gubernatorial recall in California history.

Then

Schwarzenegger took office two months later, ending five years of Democratic control of the governor's office.

Now

The recall showed that a fragmented field plus an unusual ballot format can deliver a result the dominant party didn't expect.

Why this matters now

The recall is the precedent for a Republican winning a California governor's race through ballot mechanics rather than a partisan swing. The top-two system in 2026 could deliver a similar result through a different mechanism.

November 2006

Schwarzenegger reelection (2006)

Arnold Schwarzenegger defeated state treasurer Phil Angelides by 17 points to win a full term as governor. Schwarzenegger had originally taken office through the 2003 recall of Gray Davis. His 2006 win was the last time a Republican won any statewide California office.

Then

Schwarzenegger governed as a moderate, broke with national Republicans on climate, and left office in 2011 with low approval.

Now

California Republican registration dropped from 35% in 2002 to under 24% by 2026, and no Republican has won statewide since.

Why this matters now

Twenty years is the drought a 2026 Republican advancement would interrupt. The last time it happened, the winner was a Hollywood celebrity governing from the center, not a Fox News host or a Trump-endorsed sheriff.

June 2016

California US Senate primary (2016)

Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez, both Democrats, finished first and second in the top-two primary for Barbara Boxer's open Senate seat. The November runoff was the first statewide federal race in California with no Republican on the ballot. Harris won with 62% in November.

Then

Republicans were shut out of a major Senate race in the country's largest state for the first time in modern history.

Now

The 2016 result confirmed that top-two could produce same-party runoffs and remove the GOP from statewide competition entirely.

Why this matters now

The 2026 governor's race could produce the mirror image: a runoff with no Democrat on the ballot. The mechanism that excluded Republicans in 2016 can exclude Democrats in 2026 if the vote splits the other way.

Sources

(3)
Ballotpedia California Secretary of State ABC7 News