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UK and France scrap 'one in, one out' migrant return scheme

UK and France scrap 'one in, one out' migrant return scheme

Rule Changes

Pilot sent about 1,500 small-boat arrivals back to France; UK doubles French coast patrols as Paris seeks an EU-wide deal

October 14th, 2026: Home Office doubles riot police on French coast

Overview

Updated Oct 19

The UK and France ended their 'one in, one out' migrant exchange on October 1, 2026, about 14 months after it began. The pilot sent roughly 1,500 small-boat arrivals back to France and brought a similar number of asylum seekers to Britain, about 4% of the 27,920 people who crossed during the period covered by the figures.

France declined to extend the deal and wants the burden shared across the EU instead. On October 14, the Home Office said it would double the number of riot police along the French coast. Deportation flights for detained migrants continue, and crossings are down more than 40% from last year.

Why it matters

Britain has no bilateral returns deal with France, so its effort to stop small boats now rests on French beach patrols and deportation flights.

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Key Indicators

19,135
Channel crossings in 2026
Down 42% from the same period in 2025.
~1,500
People returned to France under the pilot
A similar number were transferred from France to the UK legally.
4%
Small-boat arrivals returned under the pilot
About 1,087 of 27,920 arrivals were sent back to France between August 2025 and June 2026.
£56K
Estimated cost per migrant returned
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told MPs the average cost was about £56,000 per migrant returned, or €65,500.
425 days
Duration of the pilot
Signed August 2, 2025; expired October 1, 2026.

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People Involved

Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer
Former British prime minister; agreed the pilot in 2025
No longer in office when the deal was scrapped
 Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Says Brexit made stopping small boats harder; backs enforcement plus safe legal routes
 Shabana Mahmood
Shabana Mahmood
Home Secretary
Acknowledged the pilot's limits; said the average return cost about £56,000

Organizations Involved

UK Home Office
UK Home Office
UK government department
Ended the pilot; doubling riot police on the French coast; continuing deportation flights

The UK department that manages immigration, asylum and borders.
French Interior Ministry
French Interior Ministry
French government ministry
Declined to extend the pilot; seeking an EU-wide arrangement

The ministry that manages France's borders, immigration and policing, including patrols along the Channel coast.

Timeline

July 2025 October 2026

5 events Latest: October 14th, 2026 · 4 weeks ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Home Office doubles riot police on French coast

    Latest Policy Change

    With no returns deal in place, the Home Office said it would double the number of riot police deployed along the French coast. It said deportation flights for small-boat migrants with no right to remain would continue.

  2. One-in-one-out pilot formally ends

    Policy Change

    The agreement expires about 14 months after it began; France says it wants the mechanism folded into an EU-UK agreement.

  3. Home Office announces scheme scrapped

    Statement

    France declined to extend the pilot; the Home Office says it is no longer processing new cases, with flights continuing for detained migrants.

  4. Pilot agreement signed

    The pilot set a target of 2,600 exchanges over a three-year term, with a clause allowing either side to end it early.

  5. UK and France announce one-in-one-out pilot

    Agreement

    Deal announced: UK returns small-boat arrivals to France, which sends a similar number of legal asylum seekers to Britain.

Scenarios

1

EU and UK sign a joint returns framework

Possible Resolves by Jan 31, 2028

Discussed by: French Interior Ministry, which proposed an EU-wide agreement in place of the bilateral pilot

France's interior ministry says the pilot's value is clear but Paris should not bear the burden alone. If post-Brexit negotiations between the EU and UK produce a returns chapter, the one-in-one-out mechanism could be revived at larger scale, covering all member states instead of just France. The UK would likely accept such a deal because it gains a returns channel it currently lacks.

2

Crossings stay near five-year low without the deal

Possible Resolves by Jan 31, 2028

Discussed by: UK Home Office, which reports crossings 'significantly down on last year'

Increased police patrols and enhanced surveillance in northern France have already cut crossings sharply this year. If those measures stay in place, arrivals could remain near current lows even without a formal returns mechanism. The Home Office frames the drop as evidence its wider strategy is working.

3

Crossings rebound without the returns deterrent

Possible Resolves by Jan 31, 2028

Discussed by: Home Office, which says it will use 'lessons learned' from the pilot to accelerate returns

If the possibility of being sent back to France deterred some crossings, removing it could push numbers back up. Smugglers and migrants may factor in a lower risk of removal if no replacement mechanism is found. The Home Office's stated focus on accelerating other returns routes suggests it sees the pilot as one part of a wider enforcement toolkit.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

April 2022 - July 2024

Rwanda asylum plan (2022-2024)

The UK government under Boris Johnson announced a plan to send small-boat arrivals to Rwanda. Parliament passed legislation in 2024 to make the plan work, after the Supreme Court ruled the policy unlawful in November 2023. No one was ever deported to Rwanda under it.

Then

Labour scrapped the plan on taking office in July 2024, after years of legal battles and payments to Rwanda.

Now

It left a precedent that returns-based deterrence is politically popular but legally and operationally difficult to deliver.

Why this matters now

Both the Rwanda plan and the one-in-one-out pilot tried to deter Channel crossings through removals; both ended with few actual transfers and no lasting deterrent.

2013-2021

Dublin Regulation (2013-2021)

The EU's Dublin Regulation required asylum seekers to claim refugee status in the first member state they entered, letting other states return them. The UK was part of this system until the Brexit transition ended in December 2020.

Then

After Brexit, the UK lost the Dublin returns mechanism it had relied on to send asylum seekers to other EU states.

Now

The gap forced the UK to negotiate bespoke bilateral deals like the one-in-one-out pilot; France now wants a new EU-level framework to fill it.

Why this matters now

France's reason for ending the pilot, wanting an EU-wide agreement, directly targets the mechanism that Dublin once provided.

October 2016

Calais 'Jungle' camp clearance (October 2016)

French police cleared the sprawling informal camp known as the Jungle near Calais, where thousands of migrants had gathered hoping to reach the UK. Around 7,000 people were moved to reception centers across France.

Then

The camp's demolition dispersed migrants across France, but the pressure to cross the Channel remained.

Now

It showed that clearing physical encampments does not remove the demand to reach the UK, a lesson that also applies to the returns pilot.

Why this matters now

The Channel route has been a persistent source of UK-France tension for a decade, and this deal is the latest attempt to manage it.

Sources

(10)
+4
BBC News The Guardian The Telegraph France 24 Yahoo News UK The Washington Post Euronews The Guardian The Guardian France 24