1
EU adopts bloc-wide sanctions naming Ben-Gvir within a year
Unlikely
Resolves by May 23, 2027
Discussed by: Le Monde, The National, Brussels Signal
France and Italy convert their May 23 call into a formal Foreign Affairs Council proposal. To pass, all 27 member states must agree. Hungary has shielded Netanyahu's government for years and the May 11 sanctions package only cleared after Ben-Gvir was dropped. Diplomats give this path a hard road absent a change in Budapest's position.
2
Three or more additional EU states impose national bans
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Reuters, Politico Europe
If the EU veto holds, capitals act on their own. Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Slovenia have already moved. Germany, Ireland, Sweden, Portugal and Luxembourg have all signaled discomfort. Analysts at the European Council on Foreign Relations see national bans as the path of least resistance when bloc action stalls.
3
France quietly rescinds or softens the ban
Unlikely
Resolves by May 23, 2027
Discussed by: Haaretz, Times of Israel
Past French bans on foreign officials have sometimes been narrowed once political attention faded. A change of French government, a hostage deal, or a fresh Israeli-French security need could prompt Paris to walk the measure back. Israeli officials privately expect this outcome based on past patterns.
4
ICC issues arrest warrant for Ben-Gvir
Possible
Resolves by May 23, 2027
Discussed by: Middle East Eye, Palestine Chronicle, Reuters
ICC prosecutors are reportedly weighing warrants against both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich on apartheid and persecution charges. The May 20 video adds direct evidence of personal conduct toward detainees. Past ICC timelines suggest warrants take 12 to 24 months from investigation to filing.
5
Italian court issues European Arrest Warrant for Israeli detention officers
Uncertain
Resolves by May 24, 2027
Discussed by: Reuters, Al Jazeera, IBTimes UK
Rome prosecutors are taking testimony from Italian activists and investigating kidnapping, torture and sexual assault. If judges find sufficient cause, they could issue European Arrest Warrants naming Israeli officers. Any named officer would risk arrest in 26 EU member states. Israel's Prison Service denies all allegations.