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Babiš’s comeback: Czechia’s new eurosceptic coalition takes power

Babiš’s comeback: Czechia’s new eurosceptic coalition takes power

Rule Changes

Four years after losing office, Andrej Babiš returns as prime minister at the head of a hard‑right coalition poised to soften support for Ukraine and clash with the EU.

December 9th, 2025: Babiš sworn in again as Czech prime minister

Overview

Andrej Babiš just pulled off the comeback everyone said was over. Four years after losing power and the 2021 presidential race to Petr Pavel, the billionaire populist was sworn in as Czech prime minister on December 9, 2025. He leads a majority coalition with the far-right SPD and the anti-green Motorists for Themselves party.

The new government controls 108 of 200 seats and is openly skeptical of EU climate and migration rules and of pouring weapons into Ukraine. That sets up a collision course with Brussels and Kyiv. Can President Pavel and EU partners keep this NATO state from drifting toward the Hungary–Slovakia camp on Russia and the rule of law?

Play on this story Voices Debate Who Said What? Predict

Key Indicators

108 / 200
Seats held by ANO–SPD–Motorists coalition
Gives Babiš a working majority to rewrite policy on Ukraine, climate and migration.
34.5%
Vote share for ANO in October 2025 election
Marks a clear win over the outgoing pro‑Western coalition and cements Babiš’s dominance.
≈590,000
Ukrainian nationals now living in Czechia
Refugees and workers whose fate depends on Prague’s stance toward Kyiv and Moscow.
€2 million
EU subsidy fraud at issue in Babiš case
Ongoing Capi Hnízdo case hangs over a prime minister promising to clean up conflicts of interest.

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People Involved

Andrej Babiš
Andrej Babiš
Newly appointed prime minister leading an ANO–SPD–Motorists majority; faces renewed fraud scrutiny
 Petr Pavel
Petr Pavel
Pro‑Western president who appointed Babiš while warning him to keep EU and NATO ties strong
 Tomio Okamura
Tomio Okamura
Leads far‑right junior coalition partner pushing anti‑migrant, anti‑Ukraine positions
 Petr Fiala
Petr Fiala
Now opposition leader after losing 2025 election to Babiš’s ANO
 Filip Turek
Filip Turek
Influential Motorists figure; controversial far‑right image worries Pavel and EU partners
 Viktor Orbán
Viktor Orbán
Leads the EU’s most Russia‑friendly government; welcomes Babiš’s return

Organizations Involved

ANO 2011 (YES)
ANO 2011 (YES)
Political party
Largest party in parliament; leads new coalition government

Babiš’s vehicle from protest movement to dominant governing party, blending welfare populism with business interests.
Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD)
Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD)
Political party
Far‑right junior partner in Babiš coalition

Nationalist, anti‑immigration party now wielding new clout inside the governing coalition.
Motorists for Themselves (Motoristé sobě)
Motorists for Themselves (Motoristé sobě)
Political party
New right‑wing coalition partner focused on anti‑green agenda

A protest party of drivers turned national kingmaker, railing against green rules and urban elites.
European Union
European Union
Supranational Organization
Faces potential new spoiler government in key member state

Bloc that funds Czech development and Ukraine aid, now confronting another skeptical government inside its ranks.

Timeline

  1. Babiš sworn in again as Czech prime minister

    Government

    At Prague Castle, President Pavel appoints Andrej Babiš prime minister for the third time. The ANO–SPD–Motorists coalition prepares a 16‑member cabinet and signals a more critical stance toward EU climate and migration policies and a scaling back of military and humanitarian support for Ukraine.

  2. Babiš moves Agrofert empire into independent trust

    Legal

    To meet President Pavel’s conditions and address EU conflict‑of‑interest rulings from his first term, Babiš announces he is transferring his Agrofert conglomerate into a stricter independent trust, while still denying any wrongdoing over earlier subsidy fraud allegations.

  3. ANO, SPD and Motorists sign coalition agreement

    Government

    On parliament’s opening day, Babiš and the leaders of SPD and Motorists sign a coalition deal giving them 108 of 200 lower‑house seats. Negotiations continue on a policy program that promises tougher lines on migration and a review of Ukraine support.

  4. President Pavel asks Babiš to form new government

    Government

    After meeting Babiš, President Pavel formally tasks him with forming a cabinet based on an ANO–SPD–Motorists majority. All three parties are openly critical of EU policies and skeptical of continued large‑scale support for Ukraine.

  5. Babiš’s ANO wins parliamentary election

    Election

    ANO secures about 34.5% of the vote in elections held on October 3–4, outpacing Fiala’s governing bloc. Babiš signals plans to partner with the far‑right SPD and the Motorists party to secure a majority.

  6. Zelensky visit cements Fiala government’s backing for Ukraine

    International

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Prague and secures new pledges from Prime Minister Fiala for ammunition deliveries and pilot training, reinforcing Czechia’s image as one of Kyiv’s staunchest EU allies.

  7. Pavel vows to extend Czech‑led ammunition drive for Ukraine

    Policy

    President Pavel announces that a Czech‑coordinated scheme to buy artillery shells for Ukraine has delivered around 1.6 million rounds and will continue beyond April 2025, underscoring Prague’s frontline role in arming Kyiv.

  8. Petr Pavel defeats Babiš in presidential runoff

    Election

    Retired NATO general Petr Pavel wins the presidency with about 58% of the vote against Babiš, campaigning on truth, dignity and firm support for Ukraine and the EU. Many analysts call it a blow to oligarchic populism.

  9. Centre‑right blocs oust Babiš in 2021 election

    Election

    The SPOLU and Pirates–STAN coalitions win 108 seats, defeating ANO amid anger over corruption revelations and pandemic management. Petr Fiala later forms a five‑party pro‑EU government, sending Babiš into opposition.

  10. Babiš becomes prime minister for the first time

    Government

    President Miloš Zeman appoints Andrej Babiš prime minister after ANO wins the 2017 election, beginning his first term atop a minority government supported informally by Communists and tolerated by SPD.

Scenarios

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1

Prague Joins Orbán–Fico Bloc, Slashes Ukraine Aid

The coalition leans fully into its campaign rhetoric: cabinet posts go to hardliners; Czech ammunition shipments and new training commitments for Ukraine are frozen or drastically scaled back; Prague obstructs future EU Ukraine packages, migration burden‑sharing and Green Deal legislation alongside Hungary and Slovakia. Domestic pressure from ANO’s base, SPD voters and Motorists activists outweighs Pavel’s warnings, while Babiš uses the majority to shield himself from a full retrial in the Capi Hnízdo case. Czechia remains in NATO but becomes an unreliable partner, weakening EU unity on Russia.

Discussed by: Reuters, AP, Euronews, regional analysts in Central European think tanks
Consensus —
2

Pavel and Brussels Force a Pragmatic Middle Course

Fearing market jitters, EU funding freezes and a frontal clash with President Pavel, Babiš moderates once in office. The government reduces the pace of arms deliveries and tightens refugee benefits but avoids a clean break with Prague’s ammunition initiative or EU‑backed training missions. On climate and migration, Czechia becomes more obstructionist but trades concessions for budget and industrial sweeteners, playing tough without fully joining Orbán’s spoiler camp. ANO’s technocrats and the Motorists’ business‑minded wing restrain SPD’s most radical demands, producing noisy rhetoric but incremental policy shifts.

Discussed by: European policy commentary, Czech liberal media, Brussels diplomats quoted off‑record
Consensus —
3

Fraud Case or Coalition Infighting Topples Babiš Early

Renewed legal moves in the Capi Hnízdo subsidy case, or fresh revelations about Agrofert’s EU funding, put Babiš back under intense scrutiny. If public outrage spikes or Brussels threatens to withhold cohesion funds, coalition partners – especially the image‑sensitive Motorists – may calculate that keeping him is too costly. Simultaneously, deep splits emerge over how far to go on Ukraine aid and climate rollbacks. A confidence vote fails or ANO replaces Babiš with a less polarizing figure, leaving the coalition bruised or collapsing into early elections and restoring a more conventional, pro‑EU alignment.

Discussed by: Czech investigative outlets, opposition politicians, some EU legal experts
Consensus —

Historical Context

Robert Fico’s 2023 Comeback in Slovakia

2023-09 to 2023-10

What Happened

After years in the political wilderness following corruption scandals and mass protests, Slovakia’s Robert Fico rode discontent over inflation and ‘Ukraine fatigue’ back into office in late 2023. He formed a nationalist‑leaning coalition and quickly moved to halt arms deliveries to Ukraine and weaken anti‑corruption institutions, clashing with EU partners.

Outcome

Short Term

Bratislava pivoted from Kyiv ally to skeptical spoiler, complicating EU decisions on sanctions and aid.

Long Term

Slovakia’s institutions and media came under heavier political pressure, and the country aligned more closely with Orbán’s Hungary on Russia and rule‑of‑law fights.

Why It's Relevant Today

Fico’s trajectory shows how a scandal‑tainted leader can return on a wave of anger and then rapidly redirect a small EU state’s Ukraine and rule‑of‑law stance — a template Babiš may follow or adapt.

Viktor Orbán’s Post‑2010 Consolidation in Hungary

2010-2018

What Happened

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz returned to power in 2010 with a big majority and used it to rewrite Hungary’s constitution, reshape the media landscape and channel state and EU funds toward loyal business networks. Over time, Orbán cultivated close ties with Moscow, clashed with Brussels over migration and democratic norms, and leveraged his EU veto power to extract concessions.

Outcome

Short Term

Hungary became a predictable veto player inside the EU, slowing joint responses on migration, Russia and rule‑of‑law sanctions.

Long Term

Orbán entrenched an illiberal system that survived multiple elections, showing how economic patronage and culture wars can lock in dominance.

Why It's Relevant Today

Comparisons between ‘Babisconi’ and Orbán highlight the risk that Babiš could use control over state resources and EU cash to consolidate power and shift Czechia from awkward partner to chronic spoiler.

Silvio Berlusconi’s Business‑Politics Nexus in Italy

1994-2011

What Happened

Media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi cycled in and out of Italy’s premiership across nearly two decades, governing while owning sprawling business interests, repeatedly facing trials over tax fraud and corruption and fighting regulators over conflicts of interest. Despite scandals, his control of television and patronage networks kept him central to Italian politics.

Outcome

Short Term

Italy endured persistent concerns about media freedom, judicial independence and EU credibility whenever Berlusconi governed.

Long Term

His era normalized the fusion of tycoon wealth and political power in Europe, with lingering damage to public trust in institutions.

Why It's Relevant Today

Babiš’s renewed premiership, Agrofert trust structure and unresolved EU subsidy case echo Berlusconi’s conflicts of interest and legal shadows, illustrating how oligarch‑leaders can bend democratic systems around their business empires.

Sources

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Associated Press Reuters Euronews The Guardian Wikipedia Associated Press Reuters Associated Press Reuters Reuters Reuters Wikipedia The Guardian