Coal stockpiles at India's power plants fell to 19.7 million tonnes by October 23, the Central Electricity Authority said. That is about 6.3 days of burning, 32% of the 19-20 days plants are meant to keep, and 98 plants were tagged critically low.
Supplies are improving. The coal ministry says the daily drawdown halved in October from September and railways are loading more than 465 rakes of coal a day, though stockpiles have not started rebuilding. Andhra Pradesh's three state-run plants were down to about three days of coal on October 25.
Why it matters
Coal supplies about 70% of India's electricity; six days of stock at power plants leaves little room if demand spikes.
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Key Indicators
98
Plants with critically low coal
Central Electricity Authority count as of October 23, up from 60 in mid-September.
6.3 days
Coal stock cover at power plants
CEA figure for October 23, about 32% of the 19-20 day norm plants are supposed to hold.
~3 days
Coal cover at Andhra Pradesh's state plants
The three APGENCO stations held 2.26 lakh tonnes on October 25 against the 21.42 lakh tonnes needed for three weeks.
22.5%
Rise in railway coal loading in October
Indian Railways moved 87 more rakes a day than a year earlier, it said on October 22.
23.4%
Growth in electricity demand in early October
Grid Controller of India data for the first 10 days of October, year on year, as cited by Icra.
13.3%
Year-over-year rise in September coal-fired generation
Hydro output fell 20% in the same month, pushing more load onto coal plants.
16 events
Latest: October 25th, 2026 · 2 weeks ago
Showing 8 of 16
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October 2026
Andhra Pradesh state plants down to three days of coal
LatestState action
The three plants run by APGENCO held 2.26 lakh tonnes against the 21.42 lakh tonnes needed for 21 days. A senior official said the state is planning imports to build stocks.
98 plants critically low with 6.3 days of coal
Data
Central Electricity Authority data showed 98 plants holding 19.7 million tonnes between them, 8% below September's 21.24 million tonnes. That covers about 6.3 days of burning, or 32% of the normative requirement.
Railways lift October coal loading 22.5%
Data
Indian Railways said coal loading in October ran 87 rakes a day above a year earlier, and the first half of 2026-27 averaged 430 rakes a day to thermal plants, up 7.1%.
ICRA warns six days of coal stocks leaves thin buffer
Analysis
The rating agency said coal stock at plants was around six days on October 10, below the last three years and far under the 19-20 day norm, limiting the fleet's ability to meet a sharp demand surge.
POWER magazine covers CEA data as demand soars
Report
POWER reports the CEA figures; more than half of units now run low as hydropower lags and heat keeps demand high.
Gujarat asks factories to shift load off evening peak
State action
Gujarat's state utility texted industries and residents asking them to conserve power from 5pm to 11pm, and the state sought extra coal and power from the federal government.
CEA reports 96 units critically low; import mandate shelved
Data
Central Electricity Authority says 96 units are critically low; Bloomberg reports the government dropped a coal-import mandate over cost.
Half of plants at critical coal levels
Data
Power ministry data shows nearly half of coal-fired plants holding less than a quarter of mandated fuel.
Gujarat sets record power demand
Measurement
The state drew 29,822 megawatts, 36.6% more than in the same month last year. The Centre promised 10 to 11 extra coal rakes a day until November and 13 to 14 after that.
69 stations hold four days of fuel or less
Data
More than two-fifths of the coal fleet sits at minimum operating stockpile, a level last seen in December 2021.
Icra raises FY27 power demand growth forecast to 8.5%
Analysis
The rating agency lifted its forecast for the year as plant stocks stayed near six days of cover. It also said domestic coal output fell 3.2% year-on-year in the first five months of FY27, led by Coal India.
September 2026
Government orders 100+ plants to full capacity
Mandate
Power ministry invokes emergency provisions of the Electricity Act to run captive coal plants at maximum output from October 1.
Nearly 40% of coal plants critically low
Data
Grid India data shows about 40% of coal-fired plants below critical fuel thresholds as peak demand holds between 230 and 250 GW.
60 coal-fired units at low fuel stocks
Data
Central Electricity Authority counts 60 units with low coal, a figure that climbs to 96 within a month.
September power deficit reaches 560 million kWh
Data
Worst September shortage in nearly a decade; deficit is the highest since August 2023.
May 2026
Peak power demand hits record 270.70 GW
Measurement
All-time high for electricity demand as summer heat drives cooling load across the country.
Scenarios
1
Cooler weather lets coal stocks rebuild to normal
Possible
Resolves by Q1 2027
Discussed by: Elara Capital analyst Rupesh Sankhe (quoted in The Hindu BusinessLine); government statements on Coal India output
November through February is India's coolest stretch. Cooling demand drops, giving Coal India and the railways room to rebuild stockpiles before next summer. If mining and rail bottlenecks clear while demand eases, inventory cover could climb back toward the 15-day target.
2
Rolling power cuts spread across states
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Reuters, Business Standard (reporting states seeking extra power), Gujarat's factory curbs
If coal deliveries lag demand into November, more states follow Gujarat in trimming industrial consumption or imposing load shedding. A continued hydropower shortfall would deepen the gap. Nearly 90% of depleted plants sit far from mines, so rail bottlenecks are the trigger to watch.
3
Government reinstates a coal import mandate
Unlikely
Resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Discussed by: The Economic Times, POWER magazine (reporting the shelved proposal)
The ministry set aside a plan to require imported-coal blending because seaborne prices are high and the rupee is weak. If the crunch deepens, or if coal prices fall and the currency steadies, the government could reverse course and order plants to blend imported coal with domestic supply. That would mark a shift from the current approach of relying on Coal India.
4
States buy imported coal on their own
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: A senior Andhra Pradesh power official, quoted in The Times of India
The Centre shelved a national imported-coal blending mandate because seaborne prices are high and the rupee is weak. Andhra Pradesh says it is planning imports anyway to rebuild stocks at its three state plants, which held about three days of coal on October 25. If more state utilities follow, imports rise even without a federal order.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
October–December 2021
India's 2021 Coal Crunch (2021)
As India's economy rebounded from COVID lockdowns, coal stockpiles at power plants fell to critically low levels, with many plants holding only days of supply. Several states imposed power cuts as utilities struggled to buy enough fuel at rising prices.
Then
The government ordered Coal India to ramp up output and directed utilities to secure imports; stocks gradually recovered over several months.
Now
The episode exposed chronic under-investment in domestic coal logistics and pushed the government to keep pushing Coal India toward higher production.
Why this matters now
December 2021 was the last time inventories were this low, per The Hindu BusinessLine. The same lever—Coal India output plus imports—is now being pulled again.
2 of 3
July 2012
India's 2012 Blackout (July 2012)
Two consecutive grid failures in late July 2012 left roughly 620 million people—about 9% of the world's population—without power across northern and eastern India. Northern states over-drew electricity and grid operators lost control of frequency.
Then
Grids were restored within days, but the event exposed severe weaknesses in grid management and generation capacity.
Now
It triggered grid reforms, better load-management rules, and renewed investment in generating capacity, including coal plants.
Why this matters now
Shows the downstream failure mode if a coal supply crunch turns into a generation shortfall while the grid is under stress from heat-driven demand.
3 of 3
September–October 2021
China's 2021 Power Crunch (2021)
A coal price spike and domestic coal shortage in China led provinces to impose rolling blackouts, hitting factories and forcing output cuts across industrial sectors. Thermal plants ran with days of fuel as demand for electricity outran supply.
Then
Beijing ordered miners to raise output and pushed utilities to secure spot coal; the crunch eased into 2022 as weather cooled.
Now
The episode accelerated China's push for renewable capacity and grid battery storage, though coal remains the dominant power source.
Why this matters now
A close international parallel for how a large coal-dependent economy responds to a supply squeeze—with the same outcome: loaded onto coal output and imports until demand cools.
