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China's coal share of electricity falls below half

China's coal share of electricity falls below half

Built World

Coal supplied 49.7% of China's power in the first half of 2026, the first time below 50%, even as total coal use keeps climbing

July 30th, 2026: China publishes the milestone data

Overview

Updated Aug 6

For as long as China has had a modern power grid, coal has generated most of its electricity. In the first half of 2026, that ended. Coal supplied 49.7% of China's power, dropping below half for the first time.

The shift is real but narrower than the headline suggests. Coal's slice shrank because wind and solar grew faster, not because China burned less coal. Demand from factories, electric cars, and AI data centers is rising so fast that total coal generation is still going up.

Why it matters

China burns about a third of the world's coal, so whether its coal use rises or falls sets the pace for global carbon emissions.

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Key Indicators

49.7%
Coal's share of electricity
Coal's portion of China's power output in the first half of 2026, below 50% for the first time.
41.2%
Renewables' share of electricity
Wind, solar, hydro, and biomass combined in the first half of 2026.
1,950 GW
Wind and solar capacity
Combined installed wind and solar capacity by end of June 2026, up 16.8% in a year.
+2%
CO2 emissions, early 2026
China's energy and industry carbon emissions still rose in the first quarter of 2026.

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Timeline

September 2020 July 2026

6 events Latest: July 30th, 2026 · 1 month ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. China publishes the milestone data

    Latest Report

    The China Electricity Council releases first-half figures confirming coal below 50% and wind-plus-solar capacity at 1,950 gigawatts.

  2. Coal's share falls below half

    Milestone

    Over the first half of 2026, coal supplies 49.7% of China's electricity, the first time below 50%. Renewables reach 41.2%.

  3. Emissions rise despite record clean power

    Analysis

    CREA analysis finds China's CO2 rose about 2% in early 2026 as some wind and solar output was curtailed rather than used.

  4. Wind and solar capacity passes coal

    Milestone

    Installed wind and solar capacity surpasses thermal capacity for the first time, reaching about 47.3% of the national total.

  5. China's power-sector emissions fall for a full year

    Milestone

    For the first time, China records a full-year drop in carbon emissions from its power sector, driven by record clean-energy growth.

  6. Xi sets China's carbon deadlines

    Policy

    Xi Jinping tells the UN that China will peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach neutrality before 2060.

Scenarios

1

Coal stays below 50% for the full year 2026

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Bloomberg, China Electricity Council forecasts

China adds 300-plus gigawatts of new wind and solar in 2026, enough to hold coal below half for the full calendar year even as demand climbs. Winter heating and low-wind months usually push coal's share back up in the second half, so clearing the full-year bar would confirm the first half was structural, not seasonal.

2

Absolute coal generation falls in 2026

Uncertain Resolves by Apr 30, 2027

Discussed by: Carbon Brief, CREA analyst Lauri Myllyvirta, Ember

The stronger test is whether China burns less coal in total, not just as a share. This happens only if new clean generation outpaces the growth in electricity demand from data centers, EVs, and manufacturing. Early-2026 data show coal generation still rising, so a full-year decline would mean the second half swung sharply toward clean power.

3

China's CO2 emissions decline in 2026

Unlikely Resolves by Apr 30, 2027

Discussed by: CREA, Carbon Brief

China's energy and industry emissions rose about 2% in the first quarter of 2026. A full-year decline would suggest 2025's drop was the start of a lasting peak rather than a one-off. Curtailment of wind and solar, plus strong power demand, are the main forces pushing the other way.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2007-2016

US shale gas displaces coal (2007-2016)

Cheap shale gas from hydraulic fracturing flooded the US market. Coal's share of US electricity fell from about 50% to around 30% in under a decade as utilities switched fuels.

Then

Coal plants closed or ran less; power-sector emissions dropped without any national mandate.

Now

The US showed a dominant fuel can lose half its market fast when a cheaper rival scales up.

Why this matters now

China's coal decline is driven by wind and solar rather than gas, but the pattern is the same: a cheaper competitor eats a fuel's share far faster than anyone predicted.

2011-2019

Germany's Energiewende and emissions plateau (2011-2019)

After the Fukushima disaster, Germany expanded renewables fast while phasing out nuclear power. Coal filled part of the nuclear gap, so carbon emissions barely fell for years despite record clean-energy growth.

Then

Renewables' share climbed, but coal stayed high and emissions plateaued.

Now

Germany learned that adding clean power does not cut emissions if it displaces nuclear or if demand keeps rising.

Why this matters now

This is the cautionary case for China. A rising renewable share and a falling coal share can still coexist with flat or rising emissions if total electricity demand keeps climbing.

2012-2024

United Kingdom's coal phase-out (2012-2024)

Britain got about 40% of its power from coal in 2012. A carbon price and wind buildout cut that to near zero, and the UK closed its last coal plant in 2024.

Then

The UK ran its first coal-free days in 2017 and stretched them into weeks by 2019.

Now

A major industrial economy fully exited coal power in about twelve years.

Why this matters now

The UK shows how far a coal decline can run once it starts. China is far larger and still building coal, but crossing below 50% is where the UK's steep drop began.

Sources

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