U.S. federal regulatory agency
Appears in 2 stories
Reversed course from restricting prediction markets to suing states that oppose them; pursuing formal rulemaking after receiving more than 1,500 public comments by the April 30 deadline
Kalshi closed a $1 billion funding round on May 7 at a $22 billion valuation, led by Coatue Management with Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, IVP, and ARK Invest. Annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, up from $52 billion six months earlier, and Kalshi now accounts for more than 90% of U.S. prediction market activity.
Updated May 8
Drafting new prediction market rules
Prediction markets have existed in legal limbo since 2003, when U.S. senators killed a Pentagon program that would have let people bet on terrorist attacks. Now the feared scenario has arrived: an Israeli reservist and civilian face prosecution for using classified military intelligence to profit $150,000 on Polymarket, placing bets on the June 2025 Israel-Iran war with suspicious accuracy. It is the first known prosecution anywhere for using military secrets to trade on a prediction market.
Updated Feb 13
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