Congressional Budget Office

Rule Changes

Scored the reconciliation bill's SNAP cuts

The Agriculture Department proposed a rule on November 10 that would end automatic SNAP eligibility for households that qualify through the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program without meeting federal income limits. USDA estimates 6.3 million people, about 17.6% of everyone on the program, would lose benefits by fiscal 2029, along with automatic free school meal eligibility for 1.78 million children.

Updated 11 hours ago

Money Moves

Projects the ratio reaching 120% by 2036

At the end of September 2026, the federal government owed the public about $32.4 trillion. Over the same 12 months, the economy produced roughly $32.2 trillion, so the debt was larger than the economy for the first time since 1946.

Updated 5 days ago

Money Moves

Released its Monthly Budget Review estimate on October 8; Treasury confirmed similar figures on October 16.

The federal government ran a $1.992 trillion budget deficit in fiscal year 2026, the Treasury Department confirmed on October 16. It is the third-largest deficit in American history, behind only the two COVID-19 pandemic years, and the largest ever recorded outside a war or recession.

Updated 5 days ago

Rule Changes

Projected the law's effects on SNAP participation

More than five million people lost food stamp benefits in the year after the One Big Beautiful Act took effect in July 2025. USDA data shows enrollment fell from 41.6 million to 36.5 million by June 2026, a 13% drop. State data shows the decline continuing: Texas had 2.8 million enrolled in September 2026, down 20.8% from a year earlier.

Updated Oct 27

Money Moves

As of May 2026: Published shutdown economic impact analysis

The United States economy grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the final quarter of 2025—a steep drop from 4.4% the quarter before and well below the 2.5% that forecasters expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in American history, subtracted roughly one full percentage point from growth by itself. Federal spending fell at a 16.6% annualized rate during the quarter, dragging headline output down by more than a percentage point even as consumer spending and business investment continued to expand.

Updated May 29

Force in Play

As of May 2026: Released cost analysis

The last time a president invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy federal troops in American cities was 1992, during the Los Angeles riots. President Trump has deployed over 10,000 National Guard troops and active-duty Marines to six cities since June 2025—without invoking that law. The Congressional Budget Office now reports the seven-month operation cost taxpayers $496 million, with ongoing deployments projected to add $93 million monthly.

Updated May 23

Rule Changes

As of May 2026: Provides cost estimates for subsidy proposals

The House passed a three-year extension of ACA subsidies January 8, 2026, by 230-196, with 17 Republicans joining Democrats after a discharge petition bypassed Johnson's opposition. The subsidies had expired December 31, 2025, more than doubling premiums for 22 million Americans—92% of marketplace enrollees. A 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 now faces $22,600 more annually in premiums.

Updated May 19

Rule Changes

As of May 2026: Scored Medicare obesity drug coverage at $35B over 10 years

Medicare has been banned from covering weight loss drugs since 2003. CMS launched BALANCE in December 2025, a voluntary model offering $50-per-month Ozempic and Wegovy access for 10% of Medicare enrollees starting July 2026.

Updated May 16