1
Visa wins license, begins domestic RMB clearing
Likely
Resolves by Oct 31, 2027
Discussed by: Xinhua, Visa, industry analysts
Visa's Beijing unit completes preparatory work within the year and applies to commence operations. The PBOC and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly approve and issue the bank card clearing business license. Wang Pengbo of Botong Consulting expects Visa to start with cross-border scenarios — inbound tourist payments and corporate B2B — rather than broad retail issuance.
2
Visa's license is delayed or conditioned
Unlikely
Resolves by Oct 31, 2027
Discussed by: PBOC's one-year preparation requirement
The PBOC requires preparatory work completed within one year. If network integration, bank partnerships, or technical buildout slip, Visa could miss the window and need an extension or a fresh preparation round, pushing the license decision past late 2027.
3
License granted, but Visa stays a niche player
Possible
Resolves by End of 2028
Discussed by: Bloomberg (via The Straits Times), Wang Pengbo
Even with a domestic license, daily Chinese payments run through Alipay and WeChat Pay's QR-code rails, which bypass traditional card networks. Wang Pengbo says foreign card organizations need to find differentiated space in subsegments. Visa's domestic clearing volume could stay small beside UnionPay, with its business concentrated on cross-border flows.
4
APEC Summit Pulls Visa's Operating License Forward
Possible
Resolves by Nov 30, 2026
Discussed by: George Chen, The Asia Group; CNBC
Chen said Beijing approved Visa's application ahead of the APEC Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen in November, where Xi and Trump are expected to meet again, to show progress for American businesses. A productive summit could speed Visa's path to an operating license.
5
Visa's license decision slips to 2029
Likely
Resolves by End of 2029
Discussed by: The Inference, citing American Express and Mastercard precedents
American Express took about 19 months from preparation approval to operations, and Mastercard about four years. The Inference projects a Visa license decision between late 2027 and 2029, well past the one-year preparation window.