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The US-Russia-China triangle

The US-Russia-China triangle

Force in Play

Putin and Xi sign 40+ deals in Beijing, but gas pipeline stalls again

May 20th, 2026: Power of Siberia 2 talks revive but pricing gap blocks deal

Overview

Updated May 21

Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 and left May 15 with a trade truce and Boeing jet orders. Putin followed four days later; on May 20, he and Xi signed more than 40 agreements and issued a 9,935-word declaration against US missile defenses. The gas pipeline Moscow had flagged as a 'substantial step' did not materialize.

The trade numbers reveal the imbalance. Russia is China's largest crude supplier, but Moscow accounts for just 4% of Beijing's total trade. Xi can afford to drag out pipeline pricing; Putin, locked out of European energy markets since 2022, cannot.

Why it matters

How Xi prices the Power of Siberia 2 deal will determine whether Russia gets an energy lifeline or faces a slow squeeze.

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Key Indicators

4 days
Gap between Trump and Putin Beijing visits
First time the US and Russian leaders have visited the same country in the same week outside a multilateral summit.
25
Years since Russia-China friendship treaty
The 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness is the legal backbone of the bilateral relationship. Putin and Xi signed a 25th-anniversary joint declaration in Beijing on May 20.
1.86M bpd
Russian seaborne oil to China, Jan 2026
Up 46% year-on-year in January; Russian crude exports to China grew 35% in Q1 2026. Russia is now China's largest crude supplier, ahead of Saudi Arabia.
4%
Russia's share of China's total trade
China is Russia's largest trading partner, but Moscow is a minor partner for Beijing. That gap gives Xi leverage to hold out on Power of Siberia 2 pricing.
40+
Agreements signed at May 20 Beijing summit
Covering trade, technology, nuclear energy, media, and automobiles. Four new VVER-1200 nuclear reactor units were included. Power of Siberia 2 was not.

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People Involved

Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin
President of Russia
Returned from Beijing after two-day summit; secured 40+ cooperation agreements but no Power of Siberia 2 deal
 Xi Jinping
Xi Jinping
President of China, General Secretary of the Communist Party
Completed back-to-back hosting of Trump (May 13-15) and Putin (May 19-20); signed 40+ Russia-China agreements while holding off on pipeline pricing commitment
 Donald Trump
Donald Trump
President of the United States
Returned from first Beijing state visit by a sitting US president since 2017

Timeline

July 2001 May 2026

12 events Latest: May 20th, 2026 · 4 months ago Showing 8 of 12
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Power of Siberia 2 talks revive but pricing gap blocks deal

    Latest Energy

    Putin and Xi revived talks on the 2,600-km Yamal-to-China pipeline but left without a signed agreement. Beijing wants gas priced near Russia's domestic market rate; Moscow wants roughly double. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said both sides had reached 'an understanding on the project's main parameters.'

  2. Putin arrives in Beijing for two-day Xi summit

    Summit

    Scheduled to sign joint declaration with Xi and discuss energy and trade with Premier Li Qiang.

  3. Kremlin announces Putin's Beijing visit

    Announcement

    Putin will travel to China May 19-20 to meet Xi and Premier Li Qiang. The two sides will sign a 25th-anniversary joint declaration.

  4. Trump leaves Beijing with trade truce intact

    Summit

    Tariff suspensions and rare-earths rollback preserved. Xi accepts return visit to the US in the fall. No Taiwan deal.

  5. Xi warns Trump on Taiwan as summit opens

    Summit

    Xi tells Trump that mishandling Taiwan will put ties in 'great jeopardy.' Two sides agree to a 'constructive, strategic and stable' framework.

  6. Trump arrives in Beijing for state visit

    Diplomatic

    First Beijing visit by a sitting US president since 2017. Delayed from April by the Iran war.

  7. Putin signals 'substantial step' on China energy

    Statement

    Russian leader previews oil and gas deliverables for the upcoming Beijing summit, hinting at pipeline progress.

  8. Lavrov visits Beijing to prepare Putin trip

    Diplomatic

    Russian foreign minister meets Xi and counterpart Wang Yi. Agenda covers energy, payments, and Ukraine.

  9. Putin-Xi video call sets 2026 visit

    Diplomatic

    Xi calls for a 'grand plan' to deepen ties. Putin accepts invitation to visit China in the first half of the year.

  10. Russia invades Ukraine

    Conflict

    Western sanctions cut Russia off from dollar markets. China becomes the lifeline for oil sales and yuan settlements.

  11. Putin-Xi declare 'no-limits' partnership in Beijing

    Diplomatic

    Joint statement issued at the Winter Olympics, 20 days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

  12. Russia and China sign Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness

    Treaty

    The 20-year treaty became the legal foundation of the bilateral relationship. It was extended for five years in 2021.

Scenarios

1

Putin-Xi summit produces concrete Power of Siberia 2 movement

Possible Resolves by May 21, 2026

Discussed by: Bloomberg, South China Morning Post, Moscow Times

Putin's preview of 'a serious and very substantial step' on oil and gas points to long-stalled pipeline progress. Beijing has resisted Moscow's preferred terms on volumes and price for years. A signed intergovernmental agreement or named contractor would mark the first hard movement on Power of Siberia 2 since talks began in 2014.

2

Joint declaration is ceremonial, no major new agreements

Likely Resolves by May 21, 2026

Discussed by: Foreign Affairs, MERICS analysts, Council on Foreign Relations

Beijing has just locked in a fragile US trade truce. Xi has reason to keep the Putin meeting symbolic and tied to the treaty anniversary, avoiding moves that could give Washington a pretext to reopen tariffs. Analysts at MERICS and elsewhere have noted China's pattern of front-loading rhetoric and slow-walking deliverables in the Russia relationship.

3

Russia-China announce new dollar-alternative payments mechanism

Possible Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Reuters, Eastern Herald, Russian Foreign Ministry briefings

Bilateral trade already runs 95% in rubles and yuan, but a formal joint mechanism for clearing, banking, or BRICS-aligned settlement remains a stated goal. New US secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers in late 2025 sharpened the incentive. A formal announcement would expand the workaround framework other sanctioned states could plug into.

4

US-China trade truce holds through end of 2026

Likely Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: CSIS, CNBC, CBC

Trump and Xi agreed to a 'constructive, strategic and stable' framework on May 14. The Putin visit will test whether Beijing's Russia ties trigger a Washington response. If the rare-earths rollback and tariff suspensions remain in place through year-end, the framework is real. If either side reimposes restrictions, it was rhetoric.

5

Power of Siberia 2 framework signed before end of 2026

Possible Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Washington Post, CNBC, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

The Kremlin claims 'an understanding on main parameters' after Beijing, but the pricing gap is wide. Beijing wants gas near Russia's domestic rate; Moscow wants roughly double. Iran-war energy disruptions have added urgency on China's side. A final intergovernmental framework by year-end is plausible but depends on Beijing deciding it needs the supply more than it needs the price concession.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

February 1972

Nixon's visit to China (1972)

President Richard Nixon flew to Beijing and met Mao Zedong, ending two decades of frozen relations. The trip exploited the Sino-Soviet split, which had broken into border clashes in 1969. Henry Kissinger had laid the groundwork in secret talks the previous year.

Then

The Shanghai Communique reopened US-China relations and gave Washington new leverage in arms talks with Moscow.

Now

The triangle frame Nixon set, playing one rival against another, became standard great-power strategy for the next fifty years.

Why this matters now

Nixon's move worked because he had the wedge in the third corner. This week Xi sits in that corner, hosting Washington and Moscow in turn.

May 1989

Gorbachev's Beijing visit (1989)

Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev arrived in Beijing for the first Sino-Soviet summit in thirty years, ending the rift that had started under Khrushchev. The visit coincided with the Tiananmen Square protests, which were still ongoing when he met Deng Xiaoping.

Then

The two sides normalized state and party ties. The Tiananmen crackdown followed weeks later, ending the political opening Gorbachev's visit had partly enabled.

Now

Russia and China rebuilt the relationship that has since become the 'no-limits partnership.' The 2001 friendship treaty grew out of this thaw.

Why this matters now

The current treaty Putin is celebrating in Beijing began here. Today's anniversary is the closing of a loop that started thirty-seven years ago.

February 2022

Putin-Xi 'no-limits' declaration (2022)

Putin met Xi in Beijing on the opening day of the Winter Olympics and signed a 5,000-word joint statement declaring 'no limits' to their cooperation. Twenty days later, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Then

Western governments treated the declaration as evidence of coordinated revisionism. China publicly disputed that reading but expanded oil purchases and yuan trade with Russia.

Now

The phrase has become shorthand for the partnership, even as Beijing has quietly distanced itself from it. The 2026 treaty anniversary is the next test of how 'limitless' the partnership actually is.

Why this matters now

Four years of war later, the bills from that declaration are coming due. Putin needs Beijing to pay them. Xi has to decide what it costs him.

Sources

(16)
+10
Bloomberg CNBC Al Jazeera South China Morning Post The Conversation MERICS The Moscow Times NBC News Washington Post UPI US News & World Report CNBC CNBC CNBC CNBC Al Jazeera