1
B10 production begins in Zaragoza on schedule
Likely
Resolves by Q1 2027
Discussed by: Stellantis press materials, CnEVPost, Automotive Manufacturing Solutions
The Figueruelas line opens for Leapmotor B10 assembly in late 2026 as planned. Spanish-built B10s ship across Europe at or below the current €29,900 import price, free of the 21% China-specific EU tariff. If volume tracks early dealer orders, Stellantis quickly allocates more Leapmotor models to other European plants.
2
EU 'Made in Europe' rules force higher local content
Possible
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: European Commission trade officials, EU automotive industry analysts
Brussels tightens local-content thresholds for vehicles built in Europe using Chinese components, treating heavily Chinese-sourced cars as imports for tariff and subsidy purposes. Stellantis and Leapmotor are forced to localise battery and parts production faster than planned. The cost advantage shrinks, though European production still beats direct import economics.
3
Other Western automakers strike similar Chinese partnerships
Possible
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: Reuters auto coverage, S&P Global Mobility, Wards Auto
Renault, Volkswagen, or another European brand announces a comparable manufacturing tie-up with a Chinese EV maker, using a joint venture to bring Chinese platforms and parts into European plants. The Stellantis-Leapmotor template becomes the default route for legacy automakers struggling to match Chinese cost structures.
4
Beijing restricts technology transfer to Western JVs
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: China-focused trade analysts, CSIS, Bloomberg
Chinese authorities limit the export of EV platform technology and battery know-how to foreign joint ventures, mirroring earlier restrictions on solar and rare-earth tech. Leapmotor is required to keep critical IP in China, slowing the European production ramp and forcing Stellantis to import more finished components instead of building locally.
5
Leapmotor enters production or sales in Mexico by 2028
Possible
Resolves by End of 2028
Discussed by: Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa, CNBC reporting (May 2026)
Filosa confirmed in May 2026 that Stellantis sees clear opportunity to extend the Leapmotor partnership to Mexico, where it already operates plants and can avoid both EU and US trade barriers. Exact models and timing are not yet set, but Mexico would give Leapmotor access to North American consumers without triggering US tariffs on Chinese-branded vehicles.