SPCX opened at $150 on June 12 and closed at $161, up 19%, putting SpaceX at roughly $2.1 trillion on its first day. Options began trading June 16 with 1.72 million contracts and $2.48 billion in premium on day one. The stock hit $225.64 that session, 67% above the offer price, before a 31% four-day pullback brought shares to $147.11 intraday on June 23.
SpaceX followed the listing with a $25 billion inaugural bond sale on June 23, drawing $89 billion in orders and upsizing from a $20 billion initial target. Nasdaq added SPCX to the Nasdaq-100 effective July 7 under a new fast-track rule for mega-cap listings. That triggered an estimated $4.3 billion in forced buying from index funds; as of that date, shares trade near $150, about 11% above the $135 offer price.
Why it matters
SpaceX's bonds and Nasdaq-100 membership embed Musk's 79% voting control in passive portfolios worldwide, whether investors chose it or not.
Questions about this story
0
What do you think will happen tomorrow and the next 30 days based upon research. To the stock price.
Expect a significant pop on June 12 — prediction markets put 65% odds on an open between $150–$200 — followed by a second surge around July 7 when index funds are forced to buy $22–27B in SPCX to track the Nasdaq-100, but both moves are likely borrowed from the future: Morningstar's $780B fair value sits 55% below the $1.77T IPO price.
Why it matters: Two mechanical buying events in 30 days — first-day demand and forced index inclusion — can push the stock well above fair value before fundamentals reassert themselves.
—Day 1 (June 12): The public float is only ~3–4% of shares outstanding; with $300B+ in unmet demand, supply-constraint alone can push the opening print 20–40% above the $135 offer — consistent with prediction market pricing of $150–200.
—June 16: Exchange-listed options begin trading two days after debut, adding a new speculative layer and likely amplifying swings in both directions.
—Around July 7 (15 trading days post-IPO): Nasdaq amended its fast-track rule in May 2026, making SPCX eligible for Nasdaq-100 inclusion roughly 15 trading days after debut; QQQ and other index trackers must buy an estimated $22–27B in SPCX, a forced demand event with no price sensitivity.
—The 30-day ceiling is contested: Oppenheimer started coverage at Outperform with a $190 target; Morningstar values the whole company at $780B (roughly $59/share equivalent), and 24/7 Wall St. notes large-cap IPOs historically trade 32% below offer one year out.
—The no-lock-up clause on 5% of shares (the directed share program for employees and insiders' family and friends) means insider selling can hit the market from day one — a structural headwind the index-buying wave may temporarily mask.
Bulls (Oppenheimer, Cathie Wood's ARK base case of $2.5T by 2030) argue Starlink's subscriber growth and AI infrastructure value justify a premium to today's price; bears (Morningstar at $780B fair value, AkademikerPension calling the valuation 'pure fantasy') say the stock is pricing in a decade of flawless execution at a company whose CEO legally cannot be fired without his own consent.
Index-inclusion optimists expect the $22–27B forced-buying event to push SPCX to $180–200 within 30 days; skeptics note the no-lock-up directed shares and Musk's other distractions (xAI integration, Tesla pay package) could trigger selling pressure that offsets the mechanical bid.
AI-generated with web search — may be wrong. Check the linked sources.
0
Is the SpaceX a good buy
At $135 and a $1.77T valuation, SPCX is priced for perfection — Morningstar puts fair value at $780B, roughly half the IPO price, and the stock carries governance risks that even supporters concede are without precedent at this scale.
Why it matters: The Nasdaq-100 forced-buying wave (~$22-27B over the first two weeks) could push the price higher short-term, masking the valuation gap and pulling in retail investors before a more realistic reckoning.
—Morningstar initiated coverage at a $780B fair value — 55% below the IPO price — modeling Starlink and the launch business at $611B, with $170B for AI upside scenarios; analyst Nicholas Owens recommended waiting for post-listing pullbacks.
—Starlink is the only profitable segment: $1.2B operating profit in Q1 2026 on 10.3M subscribers. SpaceX as a whole posted a $4.28B net loss in Q1 2026, partly due to Starship development and the xAI acquisition burning roughly $10B/year.
—S&P 500 entry is blocked until at least mid-2027 (GAAP profitability test); the larger passive-fund buying wave won't arrive until SpaceX turns profitable on an annual basis.
—Elon Musk controls 79% of votes via dual-class shares and cannot be removed as CEO without his own consent — CalPERS, the NYC and NYS comptrollers, and AkademikerPension have all flagged this publicly, and 5% of IPO shares carry no lock-up, adding early selling pressure.
Bulls argue the Nasdaq-100 forced buying ($22-27B) creates a near-term price floor and that Starlink's subscriber trajectory — 10.3M now, growing fast — justifies a premium multiple; bears, led by Morningstar, say even a generous Starlink DCF gets you to $780B, not $1.77T, and that historical mega-IPOs at stretched valuations average a 32% drawdown in the first year.
On governance: some institutional investors say the dual-class structure is disqualifying (AkademikerPension has formally barred the stock); others argue SpaceX's track record — first private orbital launch, Crew Dragon, Starlink — shows Musk's operational control has created value that justifies the concession.
AI-generated with web search — may be wrong. Check the linked sources.
0
When is Anthropic and OpenAI ipos? Will these three affect each other?
OpenAI is targeting September 2026 and Anthropic October 2026 — so all three could hit public markets within six months of each other, creating a ~$3 trillion wave competing for the same institutional dollars.
Why it matters: Three simultaneous mega-listings could together raise close to $200 billion, crowding out capital from other tech IPOs and existing growth stocks at the same time they race each other for AI market share.
—OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 on May 22, 2026, targeting a September debut at a $852B–$1T valuation; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan are leading.
—Anthropic filed confidentially on June 1, 2026, targeting October 2026 at roughly a $380B valuation — though its annualized revenue reportedly crossed $44B and it may post its first operating profit in Q2 2026.
—SpaceX's June 12 listing is the opening act: if SPCX trades well, it boosts sentiment for OpenAI and Anthropic; a stumble cools the whole wave.
—OpenAI and Anthropic compete directly for the same enterprise AI contracts — and SpaceX's February 2026 absorption of xAI (Grok) makes it an AI player too, so all three overlap as businesses, not just as IPOs.
Prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) put Anthropic's 2026 listing at single-digit-percent odds, with most money on 2027 — meaning the October target is soft and the SEC review or market conditions could push it.
Some analysts argue the AI bull market is deep enough to absorb all three offerings without crowding effects; others say $200B in combined raises in one calendar year will visibly drain capital from smaller growth companies and existing tech stocks.
AI-generated with web search — may be wrong. Check the linked sources.
31 events
Latest: July 7th, 2026 · 1 week ago
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July 2026
Wedbush initiates SPCX at Outperform with $190 price target
LatestMarket
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, calling it a bet on launch, satellite connectivity, and artificial intelligence. Ives cited roughly 12 million Starlink subscribers and Starship as the main source of long-term value.
June 2026
Nasdaq announces SPCX joins Nasdaq-100 effective July 7
Market
Nasdaq announced SpaceX would join the Nasdaq-100 effective July 7, just 15 trading days after the IPO. SpaceX was the first company to qualify under the exchange's new fast-track rule for mega-cap listings ranked in the top 40 by market value at their debut.
SPCX hits intraday low of $147.11 in broader tech sell-off
Market
SpaceX shares dipped intraday to $147.11 on June 23, briefly falling below the $150 first-day open during a broader tech sell-off that erased $600 billion in market value across the sector. The stock recovered to close up 2.4%.
SpaceX prices $25 billion inaugural bond offering on $89 billion in orders
Corporate
SpaceX priced its first-ever public debt offering at $25 billion across five tranches maturing from 2031 to 2056, with coupons from 5.35% to 6.65%. The deal drew $89 billion in orders against a $20 billion initial target and settled June 26.
SPCX slumps 16.4% in a single session, erasing most post-IPO gains
Market
SpaceX shares fell 16.4% to close at $154.60, wiping roughly $400 billion in market value in one session as profit-taking and valuation concerns hit the thin-float stock.
Options on SPCX begin trading
Market
Exchange-listed options on SpaceX stock are set to begin trading on June 16, two trading days after the Nasdaq debut.
SPCX options debut with 1.72 million contracts; stock hits all-time high of $225.64
Market
Exchange-listed options on SPCX launched with 1.72 million contracts and $2.48 billion in premium on the first day. The stock hit $225.64 that session, 67% above the offer price, with near-term implied volatility at 169%.
SPCX scheduled to begin trading on Nasdaq
Market
First day of public trading under ticker SPCX, the largest market debut by money raised.
Maye Musk and SpaceX executives hold opening ceremony at Nasdaq MarketSite
Market
Elon Musk's mother, Maye Musk, joined SpaceX executives at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York for the opening ceremony as SPCX became eligible for trading at 10am ET. Protestors from the Safe AI Now coalition remained in Times Square nearby.
SPCX closes at $161, up 19% on debut
Market
SpaceX closed at $160.95 on its first day, up 19.2% from the $135 IPO price. The close put the company's market cap at about $2.1 trillion, briefly surpassing Tesla.
Final pricing expected
Market
Bankers set the official IPO price after closing the order book.
Retail orders top $100 billion; SpaceX cuts retail allocation to low 20%
Market
Bloomberg reported individual investors submitted more than $100 billion in orders for SPCX. SpaceX responded by trimming the retail slice of the offering from roughly 30% to the low 20s, leaving most individual buyers with far smaller fills than they requested.
Oppenheimer initiates SPCX with $190 price target and Outperform rating
Market
Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan gave SPCX an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, implying a $2.5 trillion market cap. Horan called SpaceX the only vertically integrated AI company with the capital and engineering talent to reach a projected $10 trillion addressable market by 2035.
Prediction markets give 70% odds SPCX closes above $2 trillion on debut
Market
Traders on Polymarket placed 70% odds on SPCX closing its first day above a $2 trillion market cap, roughly a 13% gain from the $135 offer price. Pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid traded between $175 and $185 ahead of the open.
40-foot inflatable Elon Musk installed in Times Square by Safe AI Now coalition
Political
Activist coalition Safe AI Now (SAIN), made up of child-safety and faith groups, installed a 40-foot inflatable effigy of Elon Musk in Times Square overnight, timed to the IPO debut. The display accused Musk of building exploitative AI through xAI and warned investors they were buying that liability packaged as SpaceX stock.
Senator Warren asks SEC to delay SpaceX IPO
Regulatory
Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to SEC Chair Paul Atkins calling for the SpaceX IPO to be delayed, citing the valuation, Musk's governance control, potential Chinese investment through the offering, and the effect of forced index inclusion on passive investors who did not choose the stock. The SEC received the letter and did not act; the offering proceeded on schedule.
SpaceX IPO grows to more than 4x oversubscribed; Gulf sovereign wealth funds commit billions
Market
Bloomberg reported demand had grown to more than four times the $75 billion on offer, with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and Kuwait's KIA each placing orders worth $1-5 billion and Qatar's $580 billion QIA also expected to participate. Single institutional bids reached $10 billion or more.
SpaceX IPO 2x oversubscribed with $150 billion in demand
Market
Bloomberg and Reuters reported order books exceeded the $75 billion on offer within a day of the roadshow opening, with institutional demand reaching about $150 billion — roughly twice what SpaceX is seeking to raise.
Institutional roadshow begins
Market
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America Securities open the syndicate roadshow with SpaceX leadership.
S&P Dow Jones rejects fast-track S&P 500 entry for SpaceX
Market
S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would not change its eligibility criteria, keeping the GAAP profitability test and 12-month seasoning requirement intact. SpaceX, which posted a $4.28 billion net loss in Q1 2026, cannot enter the S&P 500 until at least mid-2027.
Morningstar puts SpaceX fair value at $780 billion, half the IPO price
Market
Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens initiated coverage with a $780 billion fair value — 55% below the $1.75 trillion IPO target — modeling the core launch and Starlink businesses at $611 billion plus $170 billion for AI scenarios. He recommended investors wait for post-listing pullbacks rather than buy at the offer.
Pricing terms set at $135 per share
Market
SpaceX plans to sell 555.6 million shares to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, with Nasdaq trading scheduled for June 12.
Harvard Law Forum publishes governance critique of SpaceX listing
Regulatory
The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance published 'Even Musk Admirers Should Be Troubled by SpaceX's Governance,' citing perpetual supervoting shares, mandatory arbitration, and the combination of CEO, CTO, and board chair roles in one person.
SpaceX reserves 5% of IPO shares for employees and friends with no lock-up
Market
SpaceX disclosed a directed share program managed by Morgan Stanley that sets aside up to 5% of the offering for selected employees and insiders' family and friends. Unlike standard IPO allocations, these shares carry no lock-up restrictions.
May 2026
AkademikerPension blacklists SpaceX over governance and valuation
Market
The Danish pension fund formally excluded SpaceX from its investment universe, calling the governance 'catastrophic' and the $1.75 trillion valuation 'pure fantasy.' Both internal teams and external managers are barred from buying SPCX shares once trading begins.
SpaceX files S-1 with the SEC
Regulatory
The prospectus discloses $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, 10.3 million Starlink subscribers, and a dual-class structure giving Musk 79% of votes.
CalPERS and New York pension officials send governance letter to SpaceX
Regulatory
CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost, NYC Comptroller Mark Levine, and NYS Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli sent a joint letter to SpaceX. They called the proposed structure 'the most management-favorable governance ever brought to US public markets at this scale.' They urged SpaceX to remove the provision requiring Musk's own consent for his CEO removal.
May 2020
First crewed SpaceX launch
Operational
Crew Dragon Demo-2 carries NASA astronauts to the International Space Station, the first private human spaceflight.
December 2019
Saudi Aramco sets previous IPO record
Market
Aramco raises $25.6 billion at a $1.7 trillion valuation, the largest IPO until 2026.
September 2008
First successful Falcon 1 launch
Operational
SpaceX becomes the first private firm to put a liquid-fuel rocket in orbit, validating the business and averting bankruptcy.
March 2002
SpaceX founded
Corporate
Elon Musk founds Space Exploration Technologies in Hawthorne, California with about $100 million of his own money.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
December 2019
Saudi Aramco IPO (2019)
Saudi Arabia sold a 1.5% stake in its state oil company at a $1.7 trillion valuation, raising $25.6 billion in the first tranche and $29.4 billion after the greenshoe. The deal listed in Riyadh after Western investors pushed back on the price, and trading was restricted to Saudi and Gulf buyers at launch.
Then
Shares popped 10% on debut, briefly making Aramco the world's most valuable public company.
Now
More than six years later, the stock still trades below its 2019 listing price, and the kingdom has had to issue dividends to keep buyers happy.
Why this matters now
Aramco held the IPO size record SpaceX is now breaking, and it sits at almost exactly the same valuation tier as SPCX. The post-listing performance is a cautionary tale for buyers paying 94 times revenue.
2 of 3
September 2014
Alibaba IPO (2014)
The Chinese e-commerce giant raised $25 billion on the New York Stock Exchange at a $168 billion valuation, then the largest US IPO ever. Founder Jack Ma kept control through a partnership structure that handpicked board members, drawing the same kind of governance criticism now aimed at SpaceX.
Then
Shares jumped 38% on day one, then drifted lower as China growth concerns hit.
Now
The stock is down more than 70% from its 2020 peak after Beijing's crackdown on Ant Group and Jack Ma's disappearance from public life.
Why this matters now
Alibaba shows how founder-control structures play out over a decade. Index funds were forced to hold the stock through the collapse, much as they would be forced to hold SPCX.
3 of 3
May 2012
Facebook IPO (2012)
Facebook raised $16 billion at a $104 billion valuation, with Mark Zuckerberg keeping majority voting control through a dual-class structure. Nasdaq's trading systems glitched on day one, delaying the open by 30 minutes and triggering lawsuits.
Then
Shares fell 50% within four months on mobile monetization fears.
Now
Meta is now worth more than $1.5 trillion, vindicating both the valuation and the dual-class structure for early holders who stayed in.
Why this matters now
Facebook is the bull case: a controversial mega-IPO with founder control that ultimately delivered. SpaceX bulls cite Meta as the template for how this story can end.
