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ITC finds solar imports from India, Indonesia, Laos injured US manufacturers

ITC finds solar imports from India, Indonesia, Laos injured US manufacturers

Rule Changes

Commerce publishes the duty orders; Indonesian entries face retroactive duties

2 days ago: Countervailing duty orders published

Overview

Updated 2 days ago

Commerce published the antidumping and countervailing duty orders Nov. 9, locking in the steep rates on solar cells from India, Indonesia and Laos. The International Trade Commission ruled in October that imports from all three countries injured US manufacturers.

The countervailing duty order reaches back to Indonesian entries made on or after Nov. 28, 2025. For India and Laos, the ITC found no critical circumstances, so Commerce will refund deposits collected on entries in that same window through Feb. 26, 2026. Commerce also corrected a ministerial error in the Laos dumping determination.

Why it matters

The duties are steep enough to shut India, Indonesia, and Laos out of the US solar market, raising costs for American solar project builders.

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Key Indicators

$1.54B
Combined 2024 cell imports
Value of solar cells imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos in 2024.
123.04%
India dumping margin
Final antidumping rate applied to all Indian producers.
126.09%
India countervailing rate
Final subsidy duty for Indian producers.
6.01B
2024 cell import volume
Watts of solar cells imported from the three countries in 2024.
Nov 28, 2025
Indonesia retroactive start
Countervailing duties apply to Indonesian entries made on or after this date.

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People Involved

TB
Tim Brightbill
Partner at Wiley Rein, lead counsel for the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade
Lead attorney for the petitioners in the Solar IV case

Organizations Involved

US International Trade Commission
US International Trade Commission
Federal Agency
Found material injury Oct. 14; determination published in the Federal Register Nov. 5

Independent agency that decides whether dumped and subsidized imports injure US industry.
U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. Department of Commerce
Federal Agency
Published the antidumping and countervailing duty orders Nov. 9; Indonesian entries face retroactive duties from Nov. 28, 2025

Sets dumping margins and subsidy rates, then issues the final duty orders.
AA
Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade
Trade coalition
Filed the petition that started the case

Coalition of US solar manufacturers led by First Solar, Hanwha Qcells USA, and Mission Solar Energy.

Timeline

September 2026 December 2026

8 events Latest: 2 days ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Section 232 polysilicon tariff takes effect

    Upcoming Policy

    Section 232 tariff on polysilicon goes into effect, layered on existing duties.

  2. Countervailing duty orders published

    Latest Legal

    Commerce's subsidy-duty orders take effect Nov. 9. Duties apply retroactively to Indonesian entries from Nov. 28, 2025; deposits on Indian and Laotian entries from that date to Feb. 26, 2026 will be refunded.

  3. Antidumping duty orders issued; Laos rate corrected

    Legal

    Commerce issued the dumping orders the same day and amended its Laos determination to fix a ministerial error.

  4. ITC injury determination published

    Legal

    The Federal Register prints the ITC's finding that imports from all three countries injured US producers, and separates Indonesia on critical circumstances.

  5. Commerce issues final AD/CVD orders

    Legal

    Commerce signed the antidumping and countervailing duty orders, with cash deposits effective Nov. 5 and Federal Register publication scheduled for Nov. 9.

  6. ITC finds imports injured US manufacturers

    Legal

    ITC votes affirmative on material injury for all three countries.

  7. Final determinations published in Federal Register

    Legal

    Federal Register publishes Commerce's affirmative determinations for Indonesia and Laos.

  8. Commerce finalizes solar duty rates

    Legal

    Commerce sets final dumping and subsidy rates for India, Indonesia, and Laos.

Scenarios

1

Commerce finalizes Solar IV duties Nov 2, barring all three countries

Deadline passed (Nov 10, 2026)

Discussed by: Tim Brightbill and other case analysts expect the orders by early November

With the ITC's affirmative injury finding, Commerce will issue final antidumping and countervailing duty orders. The rates make continued imports from all three countries uneconomic, so US module makers must rely on cells from elsewhere. The orders close the Solar IV case and require cash deposits on every future entry.

2

Section 232 polysilicon tariff raises costs across the US solar market

Likely Resolves by Dec 15, 2026

Discussed by: Tim Brightbill ('too early to tell' if it ends the need for more petitions); pv magazine

On Dec 4, a Section 232 tariff on polysilicon takes effect, stacked on top of the Solar IV duties. New Section 232 minimum price floors already set entry prices of $21 per kilogram for polysilicon, $100 per kilogram for ingots and wafers, $0.22 per watt for cells, and $0.38 per watt for modules. Whether these structural rules replace future trade petitions is an open question.

3

South Korean and African cells become the next solar trade target

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Clean Energy Counsel; American Manufacturers for Energy Resilience petition

US module assemblers have already shifted cell sourcing to South Korea, the Philippines, Kenya, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. A separate petition from the coalition American Manufacturers for Energy Resilience targets South Korean suppliers, and Commerce has opened a circumvention inquiry into Ethiopian-assembled products. The Solar IV resolution may simply move the fight to the next low-cost source.

4

Retroactive duties reach Indonesian entries made before the orders

Likely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: US International Trade Commission, in its Nov. 5 Federal Register notice

The ITC found that imports covered by Commerce's critical-circumstances finding are likely to undermine the remedy for Indonesia, but not for India or Laos. Importers holding Indonesian-origin entries from before the orders should ask how that finding applies to them.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2012-2018

US-China solar trade war (2012 onward)

In 2012 the US imposed antidumping and countervailing duties on Chinese-made solar cells. Several follow-up reviews kept the duties in place, making direct exports from China uneconomic.

Then

Chinese manufacturers moved production to Southeast Asia to keep selling to US buyers.

Now

Those relocated plants later became targets of circumvention cases, and production moved again, to India, Indonesia, and Laos.

Why this matters now

The Solar IV case targets exactly those relocated Chinese-owned factories, the third wave of supply after two earlier rounds of US duties.

2022-2024

Southeast Asia circumvention investigation (2022-2024)

After Chinese firms shifted cell output to Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, US officials found the companies were still evading the China duties and imposed new ones. A temporary tariff exemption froze US solar development for months.

Then

Chinese-owned companies opened new plants in India, Indonesia, and Laos.

Now

Those suppliers are now the subject of the Solar IV case.

Why this matters now

As Brightbill put it, the new orders formally close off the route companies used to get around earlier trade cases.

Sources

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Utility Dive Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) US Department of Commerce pv magazine Reuters via Investing.com India Today Clean Energy Counsel Federal Register Mysteel Law360 SolarStock USA MLex Washington Gazette Federal Register Federal Register Federal Register Federal Register Law360