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The battle for Kupiansk

The battle for Kupiansk

Force in Play

Russia's Three-Year Campaign to Retake Ukraine's Northeast Rail Hub

February 9th, 2026: Russia launches mechanized assault east of Kupiansk

Overview

Russian forces have spent more than two years trying to recapture Kupiansk, a railway hub they lost in five days during Ukraine's 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive. On February 9, 2026, Russian troops launched a mechanized assault east of the city, claiming to have captured the villages of Petropavlivka and Stepova Novoselivka—though Ukrainian forces reported repelling multiple attacks in the same area. The contested advance continues a pattern of Russian claims that outpace verified territorial control.

Kupiansk sits at the intersection of five railway lines and multiple highways, making it a logistics chokepoint for northeastern Ukraine. Russian control would enable resupply to forces pushing toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the twin cities at the heart of Ukrainian-held Donetsk. But the offensive has moved at roughly 23 meters per day since November 2024, with Russian forces suffering over 1,000 casualties in early December 2025 alone. Despite Russian General Valery Gerasimov's November 2025 claim that the city had been 'liberated,' President Zelensky visited Kupiansk in December—standing less than two kilometers from Russian positions.

Play on this story Voices Debate Who Said What? Predict

Key Indicators

90%
Ukrainian control of Kupiansk
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported Ukraine controls almost 90 percent of the city as of late January 2026
23m/day
Russian advance rate
Average pace of Russian territorial gains since crossing the Oskil River in November 2024
1,000+
Russian casualties (Dec 2025)
Soldiers killed or wounded during the failed December offensive around Kupiansk
90%
City destruction
Russian strikes have destroyed approximately 90 percent of Kupiansk's infrastructure

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People Involved

Oleksandr Syrskyi
Oleksandr Syrskyi
Leading Ukrainian operations in Kupiansk direction
 Sergei Kuzovlev
Sergei Kuzovlev
Leading Russian offensive operations toward Kupiansk
 Valery Gerasimov
Valery Gerasimov
Repeatedly making disputed claims about Kupiansk
 Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Visited Kupiansk frontline in December 2025

Organizations Involved

13th Operational Brigade Khartiia
13th Operational Brigade Khartiia
National Guard of Ukraine
Leading Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupiansk

Elite National Guard formation conducting urban clearing operations in Kupiansk city center.
Russian Western Grouping of Forces (Zapad)
Russian Western Grouping of Forces (Zapad)
Russian Military Formation
Conducting offensive operations toward Kupiansk

Russian military formation responsible for operations in Kharkiv Oblast, including the Kupiansk offensive.
Institute for the Study of War
Institute for the Study of War
Research Organization
Providing daily assessments of the Kupiansk front

Washington-based think tank publishing daily Russian offensive campaign assessments throughout the Ukraine war.

Timeline

  1. Russia launches mechanized assault east of Kupiansk

    Assault

    Russian forces launched a large-scale mechanized assault, claiming capture of Petropavlivka and Stepova Novoselivka. Ukraine reported repelling multiple attacks in the same area.

  2. Ukraine enters Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi

    Territorial Control

    Ukraine's General Staff confirmed that Defense Forces entered the village of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi in Kharkiv region.

  3. Khartiia Brigade recaptures Kupiansk city council

    Territorial Control

    Ukraine's Khartiia Brigade raised the national flag over Kupiansk's city council building after clearing Russian forces from the city center.

  4. Russia sets February 2026 deadline for Kupiansk

    Statement

    Ukrainian military reported that Russia assigned new orders to capture Kupiansk by February 2026.

  5. Zelensky visits Kupiansk, disproving Russian claims

    Visit

    President Zelensky traveled to Kupiansk and recorded video less than two kilometers from Russian positions, contradicting Moscow's capture claims.

  6. Putin awards Kuzovlev Hero of Russia medal

    Award

    Putin personally awarded General Kuzovlev the Hero of Russia title for the claimed capture of Kupiansk.

  7. Russia claims Kupiansk 'liberated'

    Claim

    General Gerasimov announced to Putin that Russian forces had fully captured Kupiansk, crediting the 27th Motor Rifle Brigade and 1486th Regiment.

  8. Ukraine creates Khartiia strike group for counteroffensive

    Military Operation

    Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi formed a search-and-strike group around the 13th Khartiia Brigade to counterattack Russian bridgeheads north of Kupiansk.

  9. Russia consolidates Oskil River bridgeheads

    Territorial Control

    Russian forces established multiple bridgeheads across the Oskil River's western bank, setting conditions for advances toward Kupiansk.

  10. Russia crosses Oskil River at multiple points

    Military Operation

    Russian forces used boats to cross the Oskil River near Dvorichna and Novomlynsk, establishing bridgeheads on the western bank.

  11. Russian armored columns attack Kupiansk directly

    Assault

    Two Russian armored columns attempted to seize Kupiansk city from the north. Ukrainian counterattacks forced most Russian forces to withdraw by late November.

  12. Russia begins intensified Kupiansk offensive

    Military Operation

    Russian forces launched renewed localized offensive operations in the Kupiansk area, beginning a sustained campaign to retake the railway hub.

  13. Ukraine liberates Kupiansk in Kharkiv counteroffensive

    Military Operation

    Ukrainian forces recaptured Kupiansk after a five-day offensive that collapsed Russian lines across Kharkiv Oblast, liberating 12,000 square kilometers.

Scenarios

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1

Russia Misses February Deadline, Offensive Stalls

Russian forces fail to capture Kupiansk by their February 2026 deadline, continuing a pattern of missed objectives. The offensive grinds on at 20-30 meters per day, with casualty rates unsustainable for marginal territorial gains. Moscow shifts resources to other fronts like Pokrovsk, deprioritizing the Kupiansk axis.

Discussed by: Institute for the Study of War, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Consensus —
2

Russia Captures Kupiansk, Advances Toward Sloviansk

Russian reinforcements break through Ukrainian defenses, capturing Kupiansk and its rail infrastructure. Control of the junction enables resupply for operations toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. This would represent Russia's most significant gain in Kharkiv Oblast since early 2022, though ISW assesses this outcome as unlikely without major reinforcements.

Discussed by: Russian military bloggers, Meduza analysis
Consensus —
3

Ukraine Fully Clears Kupiansk Area, Restores Oskil Line

Ukrainian forces complete clearing operations around Kupiansk and push Russian troops back across the Oskil River. Syrskyi's stated objective of destroying Russian bridgeheads north and east of the city succeeds, restoring the 2022 defensive line. This would deny Russia its staging area for future offensives into Kharkiv Oblast.

Discussed by: Ukrainian General Staff, Euromaidan Press
Consensus —
4

Stalemate Persists Through Diplomatic Negotiations

Fighting around Kupiansk continues at low intensity as diplomatic negotiations gain momentum. Neither side achieves decisive gains, with the front line frozen roughly where it stands. Kupiansk's status becomes a negotiating point, with its rail infrastructure potentially subject to demilitarization terms.

Discussed by: Al Jazeera, Russia Matters
Consensus —

Historical Context

2022 Kharkiv Counteroffensive (September 2022)

September 2022

What Happened

Ukrainian forces launched a surprise counteroffensive on September 6, 2022, collapsing Russian lines across Kharkiv Oblast. Within five days, Ukraine liberated Kupiansk, Izyum, and Balakliya—12,000 square kilometers and 350 settlements. Russian forces fled in disorder, abandoning equipment and ammunition.

Outcome

Short Term

Russia lost its only major logistics hub in northeastern Ukraine, forcing redeployment of supply lines through Luhansk. The victory demonstrated Ukrainian offensive capability and boosted Western support.

Long Term

The liberation set the stage for the current battle—Russia has spent 28 months trying to reverse a defeat that took five days. The offensive became a template for the November 2022 Kherson liberation.

Why It's Relevant Today

The same city Russia lost in September 2022 remains contested today, illustrating how defensive fighting has replaced the mobile warfare of the war's early phase.

Battle of Bakhmut (August 2022 – May 2023)

August 2022 – May 2023

What Happened

Russian forces, spearheaded by the Wagner Group, besieged Bakhmut for nine months in some of the war's bloodiest urban combat. Street-by-street fighting reduced the city to rubble. Russia eventually captured the city at estimated costs of 20,000-30,000 casualties.

Outcome

Short Term

Russia gained a devastated city with minimal strategic value. The prolonged battle consumed Wagner's combat power and strained relations between Prigozhin and the Russian military command.

Long Term

Bakhmut became synonymous with attritional warfare for marginal gains—a pattern now repeating at Kupiansk, where Russia advances meters per day at similar casualty rates.

Why It's Relevant Today

Both battles show Russia trading massive casualties for symbolic urban centers. Kupiansk's rail junction gives it more strategic value than Bakhmut, but the grinding pace of Russian advances mirrors the earlier siege.

Liberation of Kherson (November 2022)

November 2022

What Happened

Ukraine's interdiction campaign cut Russian supply lines across the Dnipro River, forcing a withdrawal from Kherson—the only regional capital Russia had captured. General Surovikin announced the retreat on November 9; Ukrainian forces entered the city on November 11.

Outcome

Short Term

Russia abandoned the only regional capital it had seized, a major political embarrassment for the Kremlin. Ukrainian forces liberated the entire western bank of the Dnipro.

Long Term

The withdrawal showed that Russian forces would abandon positions when logistics became untenable—a dynamic Ukraine has tried to replicate by targeting Kupiansk-bound supply lines across the Oskil River.

Why It's Relevant Today

Both Kherson and Kupiansk involve river crossings as critical chokepoints. Ukraine successfully interdicted Russian logistics at Kherson; Russia's Oskil bridgeheads near Kupiansk represent an attempt to avoid the same vulnerability.

Sources

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Institute for the Study of War Wikipedia Kyiv Independent Euromaidan Press The Moscow Times Center for Strategic and International Studies Censor.net Al Jazeera RBC-Ukraine Kyiv Independent