1
House defeats or tables Hegseth impeachment
Deadline passed (Sep 18, 2026)
Discussed by: NPR, CNBC, and Axios note Republicans hold enough votes to kill the resolution; leadership may move to table.
House Republicans referred the articles to the Judiciary Committee on Nov. 10, 211-204, effectively killing the effort for this Congress. The vote put every member on record on the Iran war.
2
House impeaches Hegseth; Senate acquits
Deadline passed (Sep 18, 2026)
Discussed by: Widely described as a long shot; would require substantial Republican defections beyond the handful who backed prior war powers resolutions.
A bloc of Republicans joins Democrats, and at least one article passes the House. The Senate then holds a trial, the first Cabinet impeachment trial since 1876, but falls short of the 67 votes needed to convict. Hegseth keeps his job with lasting political damage, and the precedent of Cabinet impeachment is reestablished.
3
Impeachment fails, but visible GOP split becomes the midterm story
Deadline passed (Sep 18, 2026)
Discussed by: The Hill notes a few Republicans bucking party leadership on prior war powers votes; political observers track defection counts as a gauge of the war's cost to incumbents.
Massie's articles fail, but a visible number of Republicans vote against tabling or for an article. The split signals that the Iran war is a liability for GOP incumbents in competitive districts. The vote margins feed midterm messaging, and further war powers votes accelerate in the next Congress.
4
Lame-duck vote decides Hegseth's fate
Deadline passed (Nov 9, 2026)
Discussed by: CNN and the American Tribune report the vote now awaits the House's November 9 return.
The House returned Nov. 9 and voted Nov. 10 to refer the articles to committee, 211-204. Hegseth survived; Democrats can revive the resolution in January.
5
Democrats revive Hegseth impeachment in January
Possible
Resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Discussed by: AP and BBC note the resolution can be taken up after Democrats take control of Congress.
The articles remain pending and can be revived in the new Congress. Democrats would need to schedule a vote and hold their caucus together; the House could pass at least one article, sending the case to the Senate.