Kadima's 2009 plurality
Tzipi Livni's Kadima won 28 seats to Likud's 27 but could not assemble 61 votes from the rest of the Knesset. President Shimon Peres handed the mandate to Netanyahu, who built a coalition with the right and the ultra-Orthodox.
Netanyahu returned to the prime minister's office despite finishing second.
The episode anchored the modern rule of Israeli coalition politics: winning the most seats matters less than commanding 61, and the right-religious bloc has been easier to assemble than its rival.
Together leading Likud in seat polls is not enough on its own. The relevant question is which bloc — including parties not in the merger — can reach 61 first.
