1
Exporters miss the 9-month window as collections slow
Possible
Resolves by Q3 2027
Discussed by: Trade analysts at Indian export promotion councils and banking industry observers
The shortened window tightens cash-collection timelines for exporters, especially those with long supply chains or slow-paying buyers. Exporters already on the RBI caution list as of September 30 get transitional treatment, but new contracts face the nine-month deadline. If a meaningful share of export bills exceed the window, the RBI could extend deadlines or soften enforcement. The first full cohort of exporters hits the nine-month mark in mid-2027.
2
Bulk deposit rates diverge as banks price for funding risk
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Banking analysts covering Indian lenders
The liquidity coverage ratio-linked framework lets banks price bulk deposits — those above Rs 3 crore — by their liquidity characteristics, so deposits expected to stay longer can command different rates. Banks must disclose rates daily by 10 am and offer uniform pricing for similar deposits on the same date. The transparency requirement could intensify competition for stable funding. Compare disclosed rates across major banks in the months after October.
3
UPI merchant fee above Rs 2,000 reroutes large payments
Uncertain
Resolves by Q1 2027
Discussed by: Digital payments analysts and fintech trackers
From October 15, a Merchant Discount Rate applies to UPI merchant transactions above Rs 2,000. Large-ticket merchants — appliance sellers, travel agents, auto dealers — may shift to other payment instruments or renegotiate fees. NPCI transaction data will show whether UPI's share of large merchant payments changes.
4
RBI softens Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve after bank pushback
Likely
Resolves by Dec 1, 2026
Discussed by: Treasury heads at Indian banks and foreign-exchange analysts
Banks have asked the RBI to clarify or modify the 20% FERR, flagging possible double counting on client and interbank legs of the same transaction. The RBI has not publicly confirmed any change. If it issues FAQs that narrow the reserve, hedging costs could fall. If not, banks may pass the higher costs to corporate clients.
5
Banks pass widened FX reserve costs to corporate hedgers
Likely
Resolves by Q1 2027
Discussed by: Treasury heads at Indian banks and foreign-exchange analysts
The RBI widened the 20% Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve on October 16 to cover all rupee-linked derivative contracts used by authorised banks. Lenders have asked how to calculate the reserve and whether they can pass the cost to customers. If they do, importers and exporters could pay more to hedge currency risk.