Pull to refresh
Logo
What Changed
Following Why Sign Up
Hurricane Isaias nears Gulf Coast landfall with surge and wind warnings in effect

Hurricane Isaias nears Gulf Coast landfall with surge and wind warnings in effect

Force in Play

Isaias has weakened to a remnant low over Tennessee; flood threats continue across the Appalachians and Southeast.

October 11th, 2026: Weather Prediction Center issues final advisory for Isaias

Overview

Updated Oct 26

Isaias came ashore near Destin, Florida, on Oct. 9 as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. By Sunday, Oct. 11, the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center had issued its final advisory, with the remnant low about 180 miles northeast of Nashville and 25 mph winds.

At least four deaths are linked to the storm. About 390,000 customers were still without power Sunday morning, down from a peak near 910,000. Flood watches remain across the central and southern Appalachians, and the low is expected to dissipate over West Virginia Sunday evening. Insurer Cotality estimates insured losses of $2 billion to $3 billion, mostly in the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

Why it matters

Isaias has left nearly 900,000 customers without power and continues to threaten flooding and tornadoes across the Southeast.

Questions about this story

Free account needed to ask — your question is kept and asked for you right after sign-up. Answers are public.

No questions yet — be the first to ask.

Key Indicators

25 mph
Maximum sustained winds
Down from 105 mph at landfall; the storm is now a post-tropical remnant low (Oct. 11).
1010 mb
Minimum central pressure
Rising as Isaias loses tropical characteristics (Oct. 11 advisory).
~390,000
Power outages
Customers without power across Florida and Alabama on Sunday morning, Oct. 11, down from a peak near 910,000.
4
Deaths attributed
Reported across Florida and Alabama after landfall Friday night.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.

Log in Sign Up

People Involved

R
Reinhart
National Hurricane Center forecaster
Authoring advisories for Hurricane Isaias
 Berg
Berg
National Hurricane Center forecaster
Authored Advisory 10A for Hurricane Isaias
R
Roth
Weather Prediction Center forecaster
Authored the final post-tropical advisory for Isaias on October 10

Organizations Involved

National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Federal agency
Issued its final advisory for Isaias on October 10; the Weather Prediction Center now handles post-tropical tracking

The National Hurricane Center is the National Weather Service office that tracks tropical cyclones and issues watches and warnings for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific.
NOAA Hurricane Hunters
NOAA Hurricane Hunters
Federal aircraft unit
Flew reconnaissance missions into Isaias as it approached the Gulf Coast on October 9

NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center flies WP-3D Orion aircraft into tropical cyclones to measure winds, pressure, and storm structure for forecasters.
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
Military aircraft unit
Flew reconnaissance missions into Isaias as it approached the Gulf Coast on October 9

The Air Force Reserve unit that flies reconnaissance missions into tropical cyclones, gathering wind and pressure data alongside NOAA's aircraft.
WP
Weather Prediction Center
Federal agency
Issuing post-tropical advisories for Isaias as it moves inland

The National Weather Service office that takes over storm tracking once a system loses tropical characteristics.

Timeline

12 events Latest: October 11th, 2026 · 1 month ago Showing 8 of 12
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Weather Prediction Center issues final advisory for Isaias

    Latest Advisory

    Advisory 20 puts the post-tropical remnant low about 180 miles northeast of Nashville, Tennessee, with 25 mph winds. The center expects it to dissipate over West Virginia that evening.

  2. Cotality estimates $2 billion to $3 billion in insured losses

    Impact

    Cotality estimates insured wind and storm surge losses, mostly in the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The estimate is a projection, not a claims total.

  3. Isaias downgraded to post-tropical storm

    Weakening

    Hours after landfall, Isaias lost tropical characteristics as it moved inland through Alabama.

  4. At least 2 deaths attributed to Isaias

    Casualties

    Two deaths were reported after the hurricane struck Florida and Alabama.

  5. Nearly 900,000 customers without power

    Impact

    Power outages spread across Florida, Alabama, and Georgia after Isaias moved inland, according to PowerOutage.us.

  6. NHC issues final advisory for Isaias

    Advisory

    Advisory 17 places the post-tropical storm 5 miles west of Birmingham, Alabama, with 30 mph winds moving northeast. Flood watches remain in effect across the Southeast and southern Appalachians.

  7. Death toll rises to at least 4

    Casualties

    AFP, ABC News, and CBS News report at least four deaths linked to Isaias across Florida and Alabama.

  8. Advisory 9A confirms warnings in effect

    Warning

    Storm at 24.9N, 88.8W with 100 mph winds; hurricane and storm surge warnings cover the northern Gulf Coast.

  9. Advisory 10 lifts intensity to 105 mph

    Intensification

    Satellite images show the eye organizing; NHC raises intensity to 90 kt and notes some models show a brief Category 3 peak.

  10. Advisory 10A: hunters in the storm, 105 mph winds

    Advisory

    Storm at 25.8N, 88.4W, pressure 972 mb, 230 miles from the Mississippi River; both NOAA and Air Force crews aboard.

  11. Isaias makes landfall near Destin, Florida

    Landfall

    The Category 2 hurricane came ashore with 105 mph winds, bringing a storm surge of about 5 feet.

  12. Advisory 9 places storm at 100 mph

    Advisory

    The NHC puts Isaias at 24.4N 89.3W with 85-knot winds (100 mph), moving northeast.

Scenarios

1

Isaias makes landfall as a Category 3 hurricane

Deadline passed (Oct 12, 2026)

Discussed by: NHC discussion and ensemble models showing a brief Category 3 peak

The NHC forecast peaks Isaias at 115 mph around midday Friday. Then southwesterly shear from an approaching trough is expected to weaken it before landfall. A Category 3 landfall would require that shear to arrive later than modeled, which no major forecast currently projects.

2

Category 2 landfall, as forecast

Deadline passed (Oct 12, 2026)

Discussed by: NHC official forecast

The NHC expects Isaias to come ashore Friday night or early Saturday with 100 mph winds, a Category 2, within the hurricane warning area from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf county line in Florida. The storm weakens to tropical storm strength within 12 hours of moving inland.

3

Early shear weakens Isaias before landfall

Deadline passed (Oct 12, 2026)

Discussed by: NHC Discussion 10, noting shear increases considerably Friday

The NHC warns that southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough will build through Friday. If it arrives sooner than expected, Isaias could weaken to Category 1 or below before crossing the coast. The storm would still deliver tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, and surge, but the most destructive wind impacts would be reduced.

4

Widespread flash flooding across the Southeast

Deadline passed (Oct 12, 2026)

Discussed by: National Hurricane Center and weather.com forecasts

Isaias is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches. Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 2018

Hurricane Michael (2018)

Michael was a Category 5 hurricane that hit the Florida Panhandle near Mexico Beach on October 10, 2018. It came ashore with 160 mph winds, the strongest landfall on record for that part of Florida.

Then

The storm flattened much of Mexico Beach and surrounding towns, with storm surge measured along a wide stretch of coast.

Now

Michael's rapid strengthening and high-end intensity raised questions about how quickly such storms can intensify near land.

Why this matters now

Isaias is approaching the same coastline, though it is forecast to be far weaker than Michael was at landfall.

August 2021

Hurricane Ida (2021)

Ida strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in about a day. It hit southeastern Louisiana on August 29, 2021, with 150 mph winds, sixteen years after Katrina.

Then

Ida knocked out power to much of New Orleans and caused severe flooding across the region from heavy rain.

Now

The storm made rapid intensification before landfall a focus of NHC forecasts and public messaging.

Why this matters now

Like Ida, Isaias is expected to strengthen in the final day before a Gulf landfall, a pattern that can shift impacts at the last moment.

July-August 2020

Hurricane Isaias (2020)

The 2020 storm with this name was a Category 1 hurricane that hit near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina, on August 4, 2020, then raced up the East Coast. The name was not retired, so it returns on the six-year Atlantic list in 2026.

Then

The 2020 storm brought wind damage, tornadoes, and flooding from the Carolinas to New England.

Now

Its name stayed on the Atlantic list, reserving Isaias for the 2026 season.

Why this matters now

The 2026 Isaias is stronger than its namesake and is taking a Gulf Coast path instead of an East Coast one.

Sources

(20)
+14
National Hurricane Center NPR Georgia Public Broadcasting ABC News The Weather Channel Associated Press AFP CBS News WSB-TV Fox Weather Cotality National Weather Service Mobile National Hurricane Center National Hurricane Center National Hurricane Center National Hurricane Center National Hurricane Center National Hurricane Center National Hurricane Center National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center