1
EU formally adopts deal, delists two oligarchs
Deadline passed (Q3 2026)
Discussed by: Reuters, diplomats, Kyiv Independent
No member state objects within the window. Ministers adopt the decision, the Council publishes it in the Official Journal, and Usmanov and Fridman come off the sanctions list. The other 3,000 listings are renewed for 36 months, pushing the next renewal to 2029.
2
Objection blocks deal, sanctions list lapses
Deadline passed (Sep 23, 2026)
Discussed by: Ukraine, Poland, Baltic states (opponents)
A member state vetoes the package within the hours left. No compromise is reached, and because unanimity is required, the entire sanctions list for roughly 3,000 individuals and entities expires at midnight on September 22. The EU would have to rebuild the list from scratch, a lengthy and uncertain process.
3
EU and Latvia reach a modified compromise
Deadline passed (Sep 23, 2026)
Discussed by: Reuters, Euronews
Kulbergs said the 36-month extension is the right step but refused to trade it for the two delistings. A revised deal could keep one or both men on the list, or attach new conditions, to win Latvia's vote before the midnight deadline.
4
Written procedure completes, delisting takes effect
Deadline passed (Sep 22, 2026)
Discussed by: EU diplomats via Politico, TVP World
National ministers submit written consent by 6 p.m. Tuesday. The Council publishes the updated list, formally delisting Usmanov and Fridman and renewing the remaining listings until Sept. 22, 2029.
5
Ukraine and Baltic states push for national sanctions on delisted oligarchs
Deadline passed (Oct 15, 2026)
Discussed by: Kyiv, Latvia, Lithuania
After the EU delisting, Latvia has already pledged national sanctions on Usmanov and Fridman. Ukraine and other Baltic states may follow, applying asset freezes and travel bans at the national level to offset the EU decision.
6
EU adopts next Russia sanctions package in October
Deadline passed (Oct 12, 2026)
Discussed by: Irish Presidency of the Council of the EU (via Agence Europe)
The EU aims to approve sanctions against 1,600 individuals and entities linked to Russia's military-industrial complex at the EU Council meeting on Oct. 12. The package would expand the bloc's sanctions reach beyond the current listings.
7
EU puts Usmanov and Fridman back on the sanctions list
Unlikely
Resolves by Sep 22, 2027
Discussed by: Kaja Kallas; Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha
Kyiv has said it will push for the two men to be relisted. Kallas said on Oct. 5 that she did not see that happening soon, although member states remain free to submit names.