California's 2026 wildfire season

Overview

Updated May 25

A sailor crashed his boat on Santa Rosa Island ten days before Memorial Day and fired a flare gun for help; the flare lit the brush. By May 25, the fire had burned roughly 14,520 acres on one of the Channel Islands — the largest blaze ever recorded there.

On the mainland, the Sandy Fire above Simi Valley hit 2,000 acres at 22% containment, with evacuation orders or warnings covering about 13,500 homes. California has logged more than 28,000 acres burned statewide before June, with roughly 45,000 people under evacuation orders. Governor Gavin Newsom has surged more than 2,800 firefighting personnel into the field.

Why it matters

California's fire season opened weeks early on a record-setting note, and roughly 13,500 Simi Valley homes are now in the path.

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Key Indicators

14,520

Acres on Santa Rosa Island

Roughly a third of the island, the largest fire ever recorded on the Channel Islands.

~13,500

Simi Valley homes under orders or warnings

About 10,000 homes under orders plus another 3,500 under warnings around the Sandy Fire.

28,000+

Acres burned statewide in 2026 so far

California has tracked above-normal fire activity in both the north and south.

45,000

Californians under evacuation orders

Another 36,000 are under warnings as crews work multiple active incidents.

2,800+

CAL FIRE personnel deployed

Newsom announced the surge on May 22 as multiple fires grew at once.

22%

Sandy Fire containment on May 25

Crews work shifting winds in the hills above Simi Valley.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

People Involved

Gavin Newsom

Governor of California

Coordinating state response and personnel surge

Joe Tyler

Director and Fire Chief, CAL FIRE

Leading state response to multiple active fires

Organizations Involved

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)

State Agency

Lead state agency on 2026 fire response

California's state fire agency, responsible for wildfire protection on 31 million acres of state responsibility land.

Channel Islands National Park

Federal Land

Site of largest fire ever recorded on the islands

A National Park Service unit covering five islands off the Southern California coast, including Santa Rosa.

Ventura County Fire Department

County Fire Department

Incident command on the Sandy Fire

The Ventura County fire agency leading the Sandy Fire response above Simi Valley.

Timeline

6 events Latest: May 25th, 2026 · 4 months ago

Tap a bar to jump to that date

May 2026
Memorial Day evacuations expand around Sandy Fire
Latest Escalation

Sandy Fire grew past 2,000 acres at 22% containment. About 10,000 homes were under orders and another 3,500 under warnings across Simi Valley, Bell Canyon, and Santa Susana. The Santa Rosa Island fire stood at 14,520 acres and remained closed to visitors.
May 25th, 2026
Newsom surges 2,800+ personnel statewide
State Response

The governor's office announced expanded deployment as the Sandy, Bain, River, and Santa Rosa Island fires burned at once. More than 15,000 structures had been threatened statewide.
May 22nd, 2026
Santa Rosa Island fire confirmed largest in Channel Islands history
Milestone

The Santa Barbara Independent reported the blaze had set the record for the Channel Islands and was nearing 50% containment.
May 21st, 2026
Santa Rosa fire passes one-third of island
Escalation

CNN and local outlets reported the fire had charred nearly a third of Santa Rosa Island's 53,760 acres. Six endangered plant species were under threat.
May 20th, 2026
Sandy Fire breaks out above Simi Valley
Origin

Simi Valley police received a report of a tractor hitting a rock near the 2600 block of Rudolph Drive. Within hours the brush fire became the Sandy Fire and forced the first evacuation orders.
May 18th, 2026 • 10:17 AM
Sailor's flare ignites Santa Rosa Island
Origin

A 67-year-old sailor crashed his boat on the rocks and fired a flare gun for help. The flare set the brush on Santa Rosa Island alight. An aircraft reported smoke; NPS staff confirmed the fire and were evacuated.
May 15th, 2026

Scenarios

California burns more than 1 million acres in 2026

Possible Resolves by Jan 15, 2027

Discussed by: CAL FIRE seasonal outlooks and the National Interagency Fire Center

The state has already passed 28,000 acres before June, with both regions running above normal. If the pattern holds through peak summer Santa Ana season, total burn area passes the million-acre threshold California crossed in 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2021.

FEMA issues a 2026 major disaster declaration for California wildfires

Likely Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: California Office of Emergency Services and FEMA regional staff

With evacuations already running into the tens of thousands and a record Channel Islands fire on federal land, the state has the predicate for a Stafford Act request. A declaration would unlock individual assistance and federal cost-share for the response.

Insurance Department logs more than $2 billion in 2026 wildfire claims

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: California Department of Insurance and rating agencies tracking the FAIR Plan

The January 2025 Los Angeles fires drove tens of billions in insured losses and pushed Sacramento to expand the state's insurer-of-last-resort program. Even a mid-sized 2026 season would likely push insured losses past $2 billion as wildland-urban-interface exposure keeps climbing.

Mild season — California ends 2026 below the five-year average

Unlikely Resolves by Jan 15, 2027

Discussed by: National Interagency Fire Center seasonal forecasters

Early-season activity does not always predict the full year. A wet late summer or quiet Santa Ana months could leave total acreage below the 2021-2025 average, which would mean roughly 1.4 million acres or less in 2026.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 2017

Tubbs Fire and the 2017 firestorm

A wind-driven fire that ignited near Calistoga jumped Highway 101 and burned through the Coffey Park neighborhood of Santa Rosa, the mainland city, not the island. The Tubbs Fire killed 22 people and destroyed about 5,600 structures in one night.

Then

California opened investigations into utility ignition that ultimately drove PG&E into bankruptcy in 2019.

Now

The 2017 fires drove the first major round of California utility grid-hardening rules, public safety power shutoffs, and AB 1054's wildfire fund.

Why this matters now

It is a reminder that the name 'Santa Rosa' has appeared in two very different California fire records less than a decade apart. The 2017 event also set the template for how a single wind-driven blaze can rewrite policy.

August-November 2020

August Complex (2020)

A lightning siege ignited dozens of fires across Northern California in mid-August 2020. They merged into the August Complex, which burned more than 1 million acres in Mendocino, Humboldt, Trinity, Tehama, Glenn, and Lake counties. It was the first single fire to cross the 1-million-acre line in modern California history.

Then

California burned a record 4.3 million acres in 2020. Fifteen people died in fires across the state that year.

Now

The season reset the upper bound for what a California fire year could look like and pushed CAL FIRE budget and staffing higher in every subsequent cycle.

Why this matters now

2020 showed how fast a season can escalate from above-normal early activity to record territory. Forecasters watch the same signal pattern in 2026.

January 2025

Palisades and Eaton fires (January 2025)

Wind-driven fires tore through Pacific Palisades and Altadena, killing at least 29 people and destroying more than 16,000 structures. The fires hit during a Santa Ana event after eight months of near-zero rainfall in Los Angeles.

Then

Insured losses ran into the tens of billions, and the state expanded the FAIR Plan to keep coverage available in high-risk zones.

Now

Sacramento tightened defensible-space rules and accelerated utility grid-hardening mandates. Several insurers paused new policies in fire-exposed counties.

Why this matters now

The 2025 LA fires reset the baseline for what a single event can cost California. The Sandy Fire's footprint sits inside the same wildland-urban interface that produced those losses.