Pull to refresh
Logo
What Changed
Following Why Sign Up
British food and drink exports to EU down a third since Brexit

British food and drink exports to EU down a third since Brexit

Rule Changes

Draft SPS text now with EU capitals ahead of the 20 November summit; implementation may slip to 2028

November 3rd, 2026: UK and EU agree draft text to scrap food export checks

Overview

Updated 7 days ago

The UK and the EU agreed a draft deal on 3 November to remove border checks and paperwork from food, plant and animal exports. The 200-page text is with member states ahead of a 20 November summit in Brussels.

It would scrap the £200 export health certificates and £25 phytosanitary certificates exporters pay per consignment, and bring back pet passports. In return Britain would follow EU food and farm standards as they change, a process called dynamic alignment. The government claims £5.1bn a year in eventual benefits; implementation may not be complete until 2028.

Why it matters

British farmers' largest export market has shrunk a third; the border costs behind that decline are only now being negotiated away.

Questions about this story

Free account needed to ask — your question is kept and asked for you right after sign-up. Answers are public.

No questions yet — be the first to ask.

Key Indicators

>33%
Decline in food and drink exports to EU since 2019
NFU analysis of HMRC data for the year to July 2026 versus the same period in 2019.
70%
Drop in sugar exports to EU
Sharpest fall of any category in the year to July versus 2019.
74%
Fall in egg and egg product exports
Full-year comparison between 2019 and 2025.
£21bn
UK food and drink trade deficit in 2026
Largest since 2000, per the Food and Drink Federation's H1 figures.
£5.1bn
Claimed annual benefit of the SPS deal
Government estimate of the eventual yearly gain to the UK economy from removing agri-food checks.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.

Log in Sign Up

People Involved

TB
Tom Bradshaw
President, National Farmers' Union
His 16 October analysis of HMRC data put the fall in EU agri-food exports at more than a third; a draft SPS text was agreed on 3 November

Organizations Involved

NF
National Farmers' Union
Trade association
Draft SPS text agreed on 3 November; the union has warned the reset deals could cost farmers on pesticide and precision-breeding rules

The NFU represents farmers and growers in England and Wales and lobbies on their behalf.
Food and Drink Federation
Food and Drink Federation
Trade association
H1 2026 snapshot showed UK food and drink export volumes down 11.7%, with exports to the EU still on a downward trend

The FDF represents UK food and drink manufacturers and publishes the trade data cited in most reporting on this issue.

Timeline

June 2016 November 2026

11 events Latest: November 3rd, 2026 · 1 week ago Showing 8 of 11
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. UK and EU agree draft text to scrap food export checks

    Latest Negotiation

    A 200-page draft sanitary and phytosanitary agreement was sent to EU member states ahead of the 20 November summit. It would remove export health certificates, phytosanitary certificates and some inspection fees.

  2. Defra says UK would get EU pesticide rights without a vote

    Policy

    Officials told an industry roundtable that Britain would take on the rights and obligations of an EU member state on pesticides under the draft deal, but with no voting rights. The Chemicals Regulation Division would act as a rapporteur.

  3. NFU analysis shows exports to EU down more than a third

    Data

    Sugar down 70%, eggs and egg products down 74%, poultry down 53% versus 2019.

  4. UK delays EU fruit and vegetable border checks to 2028

    Policy

    Pending the SPS deal, Britain delayed its border checks on EU fruit and vegetable imports to 2028.

  5. UK and EU confirm trade reset talks, summit set for 20 November

    Negotiation

    Prime minister Andy Burnham confirmed talks for greater trade liberalisation with Brussels are back on track. An EU-UK summit is set for 20 November in Brussels, where an outline SPS agreement is expected.

  6. UK food and drink trade deficit hits £21bn

    Data

    FDF calls the deficit, the largest since 2000, a 'wake-up call' for the industry.

  7. NFU reports farm product sales to EU down 37.4%

    Data

    Analysis of the five years since 2019 confirms the slide is continuing.

  8. FDF reports food and drink exports to EU down 34%

    Data

    Trade body figures show the scale of decline caused by bureaucratic barriers.

  9. Export data source changes for GB-EU trade

    Data

    Intrastat replaced by customs declarations, making pre- and post-2021 figures not directly comparable.

  10. Transition period ends, Trade and Cooperation Agreement takes effect

    Treaty

    Zero-tariff trade continues but new customs paperwork, health certificates and border checks begin.

  11. UK votes to leave the European Union

    Referendum

    British voters choose to leave the EU by 52% to 48%, setting the stage for a renegotiated trade relationship.

Scenarios

1

UK-EU sanitary agreement slashes border checks, exports recover

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Food and Drink Federation, Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy analysts

The UK and EU sign a sanitary and phytosanitary agreement removing routine border checks and export health certificates. Implementation takes at least a year, but exporters in sugar, poultry and dairy regain an estimated share of the lost EU market. Recovered volumes show up in HMRC data within two years of the deal entering force.

2

SPS talks stall, EU export decline continues

Likely Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: National Farmers' Union, trade analysts

Negotiations over the sanitary agreement drag on past 2027 without a deal, and the additional costs of dual certification keep pushing producers out of the EU market. Export volumes to the EU fall further year-on-year, and the food and drink trade deficit widens beyond £21bn.

3

Partial deal leaves trade well below pre-Brexit levels

Uncertain Resolves by Q2 2028

Discussed by: Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy researchers

A limited SPS agreement covers plants and animals but excludes technical barriers to trade in pharmaceuticals, chemicals, medical devices and beverages. Export variety to the EU stays roughly 50% below its 2017 level, and volumes stabilize at a permanently lower baseline. The UK food and drink trade deficit remains near record levels.

4

November summit yields outline SPS deal

Likely Resolves by Nov 20, 2026

Discussed by: UK and EU negotiators, NFU

Leaders at the 20 November Brussels summit sign an outline sanitary and phytosanitary agreement aligning UK rules with the EU's on plant and animal health, organics and disease control. Detailed negotiation and implementation run through 2027, when new requirements begin to apply.

5

SPS deal strips pesticide and gene-editing carve-outs

Uncertain Resolves by Nov 20, 2026

Discussed by: National Farmers' Union

The outline deal aligns UK rules with the EU's but leaves out exemptions the NFU wants for pesticide approvals and precision-bred crops. The union says that would erase productivity gains won since Brexit and cut emergency authorisations, which the UK grants at about a tenth of the rate of some EU counterparts.

6

Dynamic alignment raises costs on non-EU fresh produce imports

Possible Resolves by Q1 2028

Discussed by: Fresh Produce Consortium chief executive Nigel Jenney

Adopting the EU's inspection approach would mean checks on produce arriving from outside the EU, where 54% of Britain's fresh produce originates. The Fresh Produce Consortium puts the extra annual cost to importers at more than £300m and warns inspections could reach 100% of consignments.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

February-September 2001

2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease halted all exports of British livestock and meat products. Over six million animals were culled and export markets closed for nearly a year while the disease was contained.

Then

UK meat exports collapsed almost overnight and took several years to rebuild as markets imposed strict health requirements.

Now

The outbreak reshaped British farming regulation and showed how quickly disease-driven trade barriers could wipe out export revenue in food sectors.

Why this matters now

The Food and Drink Federation notes current EU export volumes are only slightly higher than during the 2001 crisis, framing Brexit's bureaucratic barriers as comparable in scale to a national veterinary emergency.

March 2020-2021

COVID-19 pandemic trade disruption (2020-2021)

Border closures and lockdowns during the pandemic disrupted global food supply chains, cutting British food and drink export volumes to their lowest points in the post-Brexit period.

Then

Export volumes fell sharply in 2020 and 2021, with the effect compounded by the transition to new EU customs arrangements.

Now

Volumes recovered partially after 2021, but pre-pandemic levels never returned, and the pandemic's effects are often cited alongside Brexit friction in explaining the persistent export gap.

Why this matters now

The export decline since Brexit is often compared to the pandemic's trading collapse, making clear that the current shortfall is structural rather than a temporary disruption.

Sources

(17)
+11
The Guardian Food and Drink Federation Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy GOV.UK NFUonline Farmers Weekly Cropli BBC News The Grocer The Irish Times Ingredients Network Fruitnet The Guardian The Guardian Food and Drink Federation The Guardian Farmers Weekly