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BLS to omit year-over-year inflation from the October CPI report

BLS to omit year-over-year inflation from the October CPI report

Rule Changes

October's report arrived without a yearly inflation rate, and monthly prices rose faster than forecast.

Yesterday: October CPI rises 0.4% with no yearly rate

Overview

Updated 10 hours ago

October's US inflation report arrived Tuesday without a year-over-year number, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics had said it would. The agency could not calculate one because it never collected prices for October 2025, when a federal funding lapse shut down most of its survey work.

Prices rose 0.4% from September, above the 0.3% forecast, and core prices rose 0.3%. The hotter-than-expected monthly reading led traders to fully price a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase in December, with small odds of a half-point move.

Why it matters

The Fed and markets lost their usual yearly inflation gauge just as monthly price growth came in hot.

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Key Indicators

0.4%
October monthly CPI
Rose more than the 0.3% forecast; no yearly figure was published.
0.3%
October monthly core CPI
Above the 0.2% forecast, excluding food and energy.
3.7%
September 12-month CPI
The last yearly inflation rate published before the gap.
43
Length of the 2025 funding lapse
The lapse ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025 and suspended most CPI collection.
1
Months of CPI data permanently missing
October 2025 is the only reference month with no published index for most series.

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People Involved

CP
Cody Parkinson
Spokesperson, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Active
CW
Christopher Waller
Governor, Federal Reserve Board
Said a half-point increase should be on the table if core CPI was around 0.3%

Organizations Involved

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Federal statistical agency
Published October CPI on Nov. 10 without yearly figures

The Labor Department agency that produces the consumer price index and the employment report.
U.S. Department of Labor (DOL)
U.S. Department of Labor (DOL)
Federal Agency
Parent agency of BLS

The cabinet department that houses the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Central bank
Weighing a quarter-point rate increase at its Dec. 8-9 meeting after hot October CPI

The central bank that sets interest rates partly on inflation readings from BLS.

Timeline

October 2025 November 2026

8 events Latest: Yesterday
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. October CPI rises 0.4% with no yearly rate

    Latest Data release

    The consumer price index rose 0.4% in October and core prices rose 0.3%, both above forecasts. BLS did not publish a 12-month change because October 2025 data are missing.

  2. Waller says half-point hike possible if core inflation runs hot

    Statement

    Speaking in London before the CPI release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point rate increase should be on the table if core prices rose around 0.3%. Core CPI came in at 0.3%.

  3. Yearly figures confirmed missing from October report

    Statement

    BLS says no 12-month CPI or core CPI figures, and no real earnings growth.

  4. BLS spells out the October 2026 gap

    Statement

    Agency FAQ says 12-month changes will not publish where October 2025 is missing.

  5. November CPI built on carried-forward October prices

    Data release

    BLS issues no October 2025 CPI news release at all.

  6. Shutdown ends after 43 days

    Government

    October prices were never collected. BLS carries September values forward instead.

  7. September CPI published, nine days late

    Data release

    Collection for September was already finished, so that month's data was complete.

  8. Funding lapse begins

    Government

    Federal agencies shut down or run at reduced staffing. BLS suspends most CPI collection.

Scenarios

1

Yearly inflation returns with the November report

Likely Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: BLS, in its shutdown FAQ

BLS limits the omission to indexes where the October 2025 base is missing. November 2025 indexes were published using carried-forward October prices, so the November 2026 report should carry a normal 12-month rate. That would make October a one-month hole rather than a permanent break in the series.

2

BLS backfills October 2025 and restores the October comparison

Unlikely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: No forecaster in the cited reporting has predicted this; BLS has ruled it out.

BLS has ruled this out. The agency says it could not collect October 2025 survey data and could not obtain that information retroactively.

3

BLS writes a standing plan for shutdowns

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: No public proposal appears in the cited sources; the question follows from the agency's own account.

The FAQ describes a recovery that carried September prices into October for most survey samples and issued no October news release. Whether the agency pre-writes a plan for future shutdowns depends on budget and leadership.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

March-April 2020

Pandemic suspension of in-person price collection (2020)

BLS stopped in-person CPI collection in March 2020 and shifted to phone, internet and alternative data sources. The agency kept publishing on schedule, flagging which estimates depended on imputation. It also warned that some furloughed workers had been misclassified in the employment data.

Then

Indexes published with quality notes and wider uncertainty than usual.

Now

The agency kept a continuous series and documented its substitutes rather than leaving a hole.

Why this matters now

Shows the difference between publishing through a collection gap and having no base period at all. The 2020 gap was bridged; October 2025 was not.

October 2013

Federal shutdown and the delayed September jobs report (2013)

A 16-day funding lapse beginning October 1, 2013 closed parts of the federal government. The September employment report, due October 4, slipped by more than two weeks. BLS had already finished collecting the underlying data before the lapse.

Then

Markets waited for a jobs number that arrived late but intact.

Now

The episode became the standard example of shutdowns delaying statistics without corrupting them.

Why this matters now

Past shutdowns mostly moved release dates. This one destroyed a reference month, which is why the October 2026 report cannot be repaired by waiting.

1983

CPI shelter methodology change (1983)

BLS replaced home purchase prices in the consumer price index with owners' equivalent rent, an estimate of what a homeowner would pay to rent the same home. The change redefined what the housing component measured. Shelter is now the index's largest component.

Then

Reported inflation behaved differently, and the agency explained the break.

Now

The series stayed continuous and comparable across the change.

Why this matters now

BLS has changed what CPI measures before, but always kept a usable year-over-year comparison. The October 2026 report breaks continuity instead of redefining it.

Sources

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Investing.com U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ETF.net Bizportal FinanceInTime Food World News Reuters CNBC