1
Fed hikes again at October 28 meeting as inflation proves sticky
Deadline passed (Oct 28, 2026)
Discussed by: CME FedWatch futures traders, Reuters
Futures traders had put roughly even odds on a quarter-point hike at the October 27-28 meeting after the September CPI report. The Fed held instead, saying inflation "remains elevated" and that it wanted more information before its next move.
2
Republicans lose control of Congress in midterm backlash
Deadline passed (Nov 3, 2026)
Discussed by: Reuters/Ipsos polls, Associated Press, The Guardian
Polls rank the cost of living as the top issue for voters in both parties and show Trump's approval rating sliding. The final inflation report lands weeks before ballots are counted, giving Democrats a central campaign message. Republicans defend narrow majorities, so an elevated reading through early November raises the odds of losing at least one chamber.
3
Energy prices cool, inflation eases if the war de-escalates
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: CNBC, Fed officials cited in the CPI coverage
Fuel-price shocks are generally treated as temporary, and Fed officials may look past them if oil retreats. But the war shows no signs of ending, and diesel has hit record highs, threatening to feed into supermarket prices. A ceasefire or de-escalation could pull gasoline down quickly, as happened after oil corrected in 2022.
4
Fed holds in October, hikes in December
Deadline passed (Oct 28, 2026)
Discussed by: Wall Street investors, CME FedWatch
Most Wall Street investors expected a hold in October and a hike in December, and the Fed delivered the first half on October 28. Officials have penciled in one more increase this year. The open question is whether the December meeting brings it, or whether a cooling energy market lets them wait again.
5
Wholesale cost spikes feed into consumer prices through the fall
Possible
Resolves by Nov 12, 2026
Discussed by: Pantheon Macroeconomics and RSM US economists, cited by CNN
September's wholesale inflation, the fastest monthly jump since March 2022, was driven by energy and fuel-sensitive transportation categories. Economists say those costs are still working through the economy; finished-goods prices and some foods, like vegetables up 41% from August, are already climbing. If the pass-through continues, shoppers may not see relief until after the midterms.
6
Fed raises rates again in December as inflation stays above target
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Federal Reserve policy statement, Fed officials' own projections
The Fed held on October 28 and said it wanted more information before its next step. With PCE inflation at 3.6% and core at 3.1%, both well above the 2% target, the December meeting is the next chance for the one further increase officials have penciled in for this year. A December hike would be the second since September.
7
Fed raises rates by half a point in December
Possible
Resolves by Dec 9, 2026
Discussed by: Fed Governor Christopher Waller, CME FedWatch
Waller said on November 10 that a 50-basis-point hike should be considered at the December meeting if inflation readings stay high, warning a quarter-point move alone would risk credibility. Markets were fully pricing a quarter-point increase, not a half-point move.
