Pull to refresh
Logo
What Changed
Following Why Sign Up
Australian home prices fall for seventh straight month as downturn deepens

Australian home prices fall for seventh straight month as downturn deepens

Money Moves

Values are 5.2% below March's peak, October brought a seventh straight fall, and markets see an 82% chance of another rate hike on November 3.

November 1st, 2026: Home prices fall for seventh straight month

Overview

Updated Nov 2

Australian home values fell again in October, the seventh straight monthly decline. After the September drop, values were 5.2% below March's peak, and sales volumes over the past three months were down 19% from a year earlier.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.6% in September, a 15-year high. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.7% in the September quarter. Markets price an 82% chance of another quarter-point hike on November 3, and a Finder survey found 35% of economists see a recession within six months.

Why it matters

Another rate hike would deepen Australia's worst housing slump since 1980 and raise the risk of recession.

Questions about this story

Free account needed to ask — your question is kept and asked for you right after sign-up. Answers are public.

No questions yet — be the first to ask.

Key Indicators

7
Consecutive months of national price declines
The slide began after the RBA started raising rates in February 2026; October was the seventh straight fall.
5.2%
Cumulative price decline from March peak
As of September, before the October fall.
1.1%
September monthly price change
August's fall was revised to 1.2%, the steepest of the cycle so far.
19%
Year-over-year drop in three-month sales volume
Volume fell most sharply in Brisbane (-27.2%), Sydney (-26.5%) and Perth (-24.2%).
4.6%
RBA cash rate, a 15-year high
The fourth hike of 2026; markets expect another on November 3.
82%
Market-implied chance of a November 3 rate hike
A quarter-point rise would take the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest in 18 years.
3.7%
Trimmed mean inflation in September quarter
The RBA's preferred measure; headline inflation was 4.3%.
35%
Share of economists expecting a recession within six months
Finder survey of 34 economists and housing analysts.
10-15%
AMP's peak-to-trough price fall forecast
UBS sees about 10%; HSBC sees 13% if rates rise once more.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.

Log in Sign Up

People Involved

TL
Tim Lawless
Research director at Cotality
Quoted on the breadth and cause of the downturn
SO
Shane Oliver
Chief economist at AMP
Expects a 10-15% price fall and sees a December rate hike as high risk but not his base case
 George Tharenou
George Tharenou
Chief economist at UBS Australia
Forecasts a peak-to-trough fall near 10%
 Michele Bullock
Michele Bullock
Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia
Has hinted at a rate hike at the November 3 meeting

Organizations Involved

Reserve Bank of Australia
Reserve Bank of Australia
Central bank
Raised the cash rate to 4.6% in September; markets expect another hike on November 3

Australia's central bank, which sets the cash rate that drives mortgage costs.
Cotality
Cotality
Property data and analytics firm
Publisher of the Home Value Index; October data showed a seventh straight monthly fall

The property data firm (formerly CoreLogic) that compiles the national Home Value Index used to track the downturn.
AMP
AMP
Financial services firm
Source of a widely cited 10-15% price-fall forecast

Australian financial services firm whose chief economist, Shane Oliver, is a leading voice on the housing outlook.
UBS
UBS
Global investment bank
Forecasts a peak-to-trough fall near 10%

Global bank whose Australian economics team expects prices to fall for at least another year.

Timeline

February 2026 November 2026

10 events Latest: November 1st, 2026 · 1 week ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Home prices fall for seventh straight month

    Latest Data

    The decline extended into October, with a looming RBA rate hike adding pressure, Investing.com reported.

  2. Survey finds 35% of economists expect recession within six months

    Data

    A Finder poll of 34 economists and housing analysts found 35% see a recession in the next six months, realestate.com.au reported.

  3. AMP's Oliver flags December rate hike as high risk

    Analysis

    AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said a December rate hike carries high risk but is not his base case, according to Gate News. He expects the November hike to be followed by a pause.

  4. September quarter inflation accelerates

    Data

    Headline inflation rose to 4.3% and trimmed mean inflation to 3.7%, The Chronicle reported. Markets priced an 82% chance of a Melbourne Cup rate hike.

  5. September prices fall 1.1%, sixth straight drop

    Data

    Values sit 5.2% below the March peak; sales volumes are down 19% year over year.

  6. RBA raises cash rate to 4.6%

    Policy

    The fourth hike of 2026 takes the cash rate to a 15-year high; the RBA warns it may raise again.

  7. August prices fall 1.2%

    Data

    The August reading, later revised down, is the steepest monthly fall of the cycle so far.

  8. Federal budget tightens investor tax rules

    Policy

    The government announces less-favorable negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements, cooling investor demand.

  9. National home values peak

    Data

    Cotality data shows values reached their high point in March, the peak the current downturn is measured against.

  10. RBA delivers first rate hike of the cycle

    Policy

    The Reserve Bank of Australia begins raising the cash rate, ending a period of low borrowing costs.

Scenarios

1

Australian house prices fall 10% from peak before mid-2027

Likely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: UBS, AMP, HSBC and most economists surveyed

UBS's George Tharenou expects dwelling prices to keep falling for at least a year with a peak-to-trough drop near 10%. AMP's Shane Oliver sees 10-15%, and HSBC forecasts 13% if the RBA hikes once more. The slowdown continues as higher rates, reduced borrowing capacity and the investor tax changes keep demand weak, without a global shock.

2

RBA hikes again, deepening the downturn toward 15%

Possible Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: HSBC, AMP, market pricing

Markets price an 82% chance of a quarter-point hike on November 3, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest in 18 years. HSBC sees a 13% price fall if rates rise once more, and AMP's Shane Oliver warns a 20% drop is possible if the Iran war drags on and oil hits $150 a barrel.

3

RBA pivots to cuts and the housing market stabilizes

Uncertain Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: William Buck

William Buck analysts favor no further hikes and do not expect a meaningful rebound until 2027. If inflation cools enough, the RBA holds then cuts, and price falls slow. Trigger: softer inflation data and an easing signal from the central bank.

4

Australia enters recession within six months

Possible Resolves by May 1, 2027

Discussed by: HSBC and 35% of economists in a Finder survey

HSBC warned that rate hikes and a cooling housing market could push Australia into recession. A Finder poll of 34 economists and housing analysts found 35% see a recession within six months. Trigger: the RBA hikes again on November 3 and house prices keep falling.

Historical Context

One moment from history that rhymes with this story — and how it unfolded.

2022-2023

Australia's 2022-2023 housing downturn

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 425 basis points after the COVID-era stimulus to tame inflation. National home prices fell 8.9%, the worst slump on record before the current cycle.

Then

The drop erased much of the pandemic-era price growth and sharply cooled the market.

Now

It set the comparison benchmark for today's downturn; the current cycle is forecast to exceed it.

Why this matters now

Economists expect this downturn to top that 8.9% record, with a peak-to-trough fall near 10% — and more if rates rise again.

Sources

(18)
+12
Investing.com MarketScreener (Reuters) Yahoo Finance (Reuters) ABC News Property Update realestate.com.au SBS News William Buck The Chronicle NT News PerthNow Gate News Mortgage Professional Australia Reuters realestate.com.au Property Update (PropTrack) Investing.com realestate.com.au