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October hiring far exceeds forecasts as December rate-hike odds rise

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US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, nearly triple the 59,000 economists expected, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%. August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000.

Updated 4 days ago

American consumer spending divergence

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As of May 2026: Prominent voice on consumer economy divergence

American retail sales went nowhere in December, the weakest holiday shopping finish since 2018. The Commerce Department reported $735 billion in sales—unchanged from November—while economists expected 0.4% growth. Eight of thirteen retail categories declined, with furniture and auto sales hit hardest by tariff-driven price increases.

Updated May 27

Notable Quotes

"The overall picture is a labor market that is on much better footing than a year ago."

from October hiring far exceeds forecasts as December rate-hike odds rise · Updated 4 days ago

"This is a K-shaped economy with strong spending from the top and much more cautious spending from middle- and lower-income consumers. Retail sales were flat in December, driven by soft spending on autos, home furnishings, appliances and clothing. These items were hard hit by tariffs in 2025 and consumers shifted their spending elsewhere." — February 2026

from American consumer spending divergence · Updated May 27