Haitham Al Ghais

Money Moves

Managing institutional response to second major exit in two years

The United Arab Emirates joined OPEC in 1967, when crude sold for under $2 a barrel. On May 1, 2026, after fifty-nine years, it walks out—taking roughly 13% of OPEC's production capacity, according to the International Energy Agency. Officials cite quotas that capped UAE output near 3.2 million barrels a day despite physical capacity at Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) closer to 5 million. The exit is the largest single departure since Angola left in 2024, and it reshapes the strategic balance between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

Updated Apr 30

Money Moves

Defending bullish demand forecasts against IEA projections

Brent crude averaged $80 per barrel in 2024. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now forecasts it will fall to $58 in 2026 and $53 in 2027—a decline of more than one-third in three years. The reason: global oil production is growing faster than demand, and inventories are piling up at a rate not seen since the pandemic.

Updated Feb 11