Austan D. Goolsbee

Money Moves

Warned on Nov. 9 that the AI build-out could overheat demand

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28, a pause after September's quarter-point increase, the first hike since 2023. A stronger-than-expected October jobs report on Nov. 6 pushed traders to price about an 80% chance of another quarter-point increase at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, up from roughly 67% a day earlier.

Updated Yesterday

Money Moves

Voted against December 2025 rate cut, citing inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, in a deeply divided 9–3 vote—the most dissents in six years, bringing the funds rate to 3.5–3.75%. Minutes released December 30 revealed the decision was 'finely balanced,' with officials split over whether weak hiring or inflation poses the greater risk.

Updated Oct 30

Money Moves

As of May 2026: Warning that rate cuts could slip to 2027 if war persists; next FOMC decision April 29

The S&P 500 sat near record highs at the end of February 2026. The index fell nearly 10% to a late-March trough after U.S. and Israeli forces launched air strikes against Iran on February 28. The strikes closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent Brent crude above $113 a barrel.

Updated May 30

Money Moves

As of May 2026: Signaling conditional openness to rate cuts if inflation proves transitory

American retail sales went nowhere in December, the weakest holiday shopping finish since 2018. The Commerce Department reported $735 billion in sales—unchanged from November—while economists expected 0.4% growth. Eight of thirteen retail categories declined, with furniture and auto sales hit hardest by tariff-driven price increases.

Updated May 27

Rule Changes

As of May 2026: Rotated off FOMC voting roster for 2026 after dissenting against December rate cut

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% on January 28, 2026, in a 10-2 vote. Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller both dissented for a 25-basis-point cut — the first time two sitting governors have dissented together in decades.

Updated May 18

Rule Changes

As of May 2026: Dissenting against the latest cut, arguing for holding rates despite labor‑market softness.

In a single year the Fed has gone from peak post‑Covid rates to a clear easing cycle. December's third 2025 rate cut pushes the federal funds range down to 3.5–3.75% and flips the switch on a new operating regime built around full‑allotment repos and steady Treasury bill buying.

Updated May 10