The United States has cancelled more nuclear reactors than any other country has ever built. Of 253 reactors ordered between 1953 and 2008, only 27% are still operating—48% were cancelled outright, 11% shut down early. The last reactor ordered before a 34-year gap was in 1978, one year before Three Mile Island.
The United States has cancelled more nuclear reactors than any other country has ever built. Of 253 reactors ordered between 1953 and 2008, only 27% are still operating—48% were cancelled outright, 11% shut down early. The last reactor ordered before a 34-year gap was in 1978, one year before Three Mile Island.
But January 2026 brought signs the pattern may finally break. Meta signed deals for up to 8 TerraPower Natrium reactors—the largest corporate nuclear commitment in decades. The NRC is voting on TerraPower's construction permit by January 26, potentially approving the first non-light-water commercial reactor in 40 years. Yet NuScale, despite pioneering SMR certification in 2020, still lacks a paying customer two years after its project collapse. The gap between policy ambition and commercial reality persists.
Department of Energy overhauls nuclear safety directives without public notice, eliminating the decades-old 'As Low As Reasonably Achievable' (ALARA) radiation exposure standard. Changes also remove requirements for dedicated safety system engineers and best-available-technology water protection.
TerraPower NRC Hearing Deadline
Regulatory
Deadline for party testimony responding to NRC Commission questions in uncontested hearing for TerraPower construction permit. Commission vote expected in coming weeks.
Regulatory Burden Pattern Continues
Analysis
US nuclear development remains constrained by construction costs 5-7 times higher than international competitors, perpetuating a 46-year pattern of cancellations.
Meta Signs Nuclear Deals for 6.6 GW
Financial
Meta commits to buying power from up to 8 TerraPower Natrium reactors (2.79 GW), plus agreements with Oklo and Vistra. Largest corporate nuclear purchase in decades, targeted for AI data centers.
TVA Begins SMR Construction
Construction
Tennessee Valley Authority starts construction on BWRX-300 reactor at Clinch River site, targeting 2032 operation. First utility-led SMR construction in US.
TerraPower Safety Review Complete
Regulatory
NRC finishes Natrium reactor safety evaluation one month early. Construction license expected early 2026.
Oklo Principal Design Criteria Accepted
Regulatory
NRC accepts Oklo's Aurora reactor design criteria for review under accelerated timeline, with draft evaluation expected early 2026.
Oklo Breaks Ground at Idaho National Lab
Construction
Oklo begins construction on Aurora fast reactor at INL under DOE Reactor Pilot Program, targeting July 2026 startup.
Trump Signs Nuclear Executive Orders
Policy
Four executive orders mandate NRC reform, 18-month licensing deadlines, and goal of 400 GW capacity by 2050.
Vogtle Unit 4 Operational
Construction
Final Vogtle expansion unit enters service. Total project cost: $35 billion, 150% over budget.
NuScale CFPP Cancelled
Cancellation
NuScale and UAMPS terminate the Carbon Free Power Project after costs triple. Only 26% of required subscriptions secured. Stock drops 42%.
Vogtle Unit 3 Operational
Construction
First new US reactor since 2016 enters commercial operation, seven years behind original schedule.
NuScale Price Jumps 53%
Financial
Target electricity price rises from $55/MWh to $89/MWh as construction cost estimate climbs to $9.3 billion.
NuScale SMR Design Certified
Regulatory
NRC issues first-ever design certification for a small modular reactor after multi-year review.
Duke Energy Cancels Lee Project
Cancellation
Duke abandons planned reactors in South Carolina after spending $471 million on licensing and pre-construction.
V.C. Summer Abandoned
Cancellation
SCANA and Santee Cooper halt $9 billion project after only 8% completion. Ratepayers left paying for unfinished plant for 15+ years.
Westinghouse Bankruptcy
Financial
Reactor manufacturer files Chapter 11 citing $9 billion in losses from Vogtle and V.C. Summer projects.
Vogtle Construction Begins
Construction
Georgia Power starts building Units 3 and 4. Original budget: $14 billion. Target completion: 2016-2017.
V.C. Summer Expansion Licensed
Regulatory
NRC approves combined construction and operating license for two AP1000 reactors in South Carolina. Estimated cost: $9.8 billion.
Energy Policy Act Passes
Legislation
Congress creates new tax incentives, loan guarantees, and streamlined licensing intended to spark 'nuclear renaissance.'
Kemeny Commission Report Released
Investigation
Presidential commission finds failures in personnel training, design, and emergency response. Triggers sweeping regulatory reforms.
Three Mile Island Partial Meltdown
Accident
Unit 2 reactor near Middletown, Pennsylvania experiences partial core meltdown. No detectable health effects, but public support for nuclear drops from 69% to 46%.
Scenarios
1
Advanced Reactors Break the Pattern
Discussed by: Department of Energy, nuclear industry analysts, BloombergNEF
TerraPower, Oklo, and other advanced reactor developers successfully deploy demonstration plants by 2030, proving new designs can be built on schedule. Executive order reforms reduce NRC licensing timelines. Tech company demand for clean data center power creates reliable customers willing to sign long-term contracts. Construction learning accumulates as multiple units use standardized designs.
2
History Repeats: Advanced Projects Collapse
Discussed by: Union of Concerned Scientists, anti-nuclear analysts, some academic researchers
TerraPower and other advanced reactor projects face the same cost escalations that killed NuScale CFPP. Rising interest rates, supply chain constraints, and regulatory discoveries during construction push costs beyond projections. Tech companies pivot to renewables plus storage. The US abandons another generation of nuclear technology.
3
Foreign Vendors Capture US Market
Discussed by: Energy economists, South Korean nuclear industry, infrastructure cost researchers
Unable to build domestically at competitive costs, US utilities import reactor designs and construction management from South Korea or other experienced builders. Korean EPC contractors lead projects as they've done in the UAE. US regulatory framework adapts to accommodate foreign designs, but domestic supply chain atrophies further.
4
Regulatory Reform Stalls, Status Quo Persists
Discussed by: NRC staff, environmental groups, regulatory law scholars
Executive orders face legal challenges or implementation resistance. NRC career staff interpret mandates narrowly. Safety advocates successfully argue that accelerated timelines compromise oversight. The 18-month licensing deadline becomes 36 months in practice. Construction costs remain at $15,000/kW while competitors build at $3,000/kW.
5
Tech Giants Lock In Nuclear Capacity
Discussed by: Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, nuclear industry analysts
Meta's January 2026 commitment triggers wave of similar deals from other tech companies racing to secure AI data center power. Long-term contracts provide revenue certainty that utilities and Wall Street demand. TerraPower, Oklo, and X-energy sign multiple projects. Construction learning curves finally accumulate as standardized designs reach 4th and 5th units. US builds nuclear capacity at scale for first time since 1970s.
6
Safety Standards Rollback Triggers Accident
Discussed by: Nuclear safety experts, Union of Concerned Scientists, former NRC officials
Elimination of ALARA and other safety requirements leads to higher radiation exposures at demonstration reactors. A preventable incident at one of the Reactor Pilot Program facilities—perhaps caused by inadequate safety system oversight—creates public backlash. Congress reinstates stricter standards and the nuclear expansion stalls amid renewed safety concerns.
Historical Context
France's Nuclear Sprint (1974-1987)
March 1974 - 1987
What Happened
Prime Minister Pierre Messmer announced the 'Messmer Plan' after the 1973 oil crisis, committing France to an all-nuclear electricity strategy. Électricité de France built 37 reactors in ten years using a single standardized design from Framatome. EDF controlled engineering, imposed rigorous cost discipline, and built in fleets of 8-12 identical units.
Outcome
Short Term
France went from 75% oil dependence to energy independence within 15 years. Construction costs stayed at one-third to one-half of contemporary US projects.
Long Term
Nuclear provides 70% of French electricity today. France became Europe's largest electricity exporter. The standardization model remains the benchmark for successful nuclear buildouts.
Why It's Relevant Today
The US pursued the opposite approach—multiple reactor designs, fragmented supply chains, project-by-project customization—and got opposite results. France built 37 reactors while the US cancelled 120.
Washington Public Power Supply System Default (1983)
1983
What Happened
WPPSS (pronounced 'Whoops') defaulted on $2.25 billion in municipal bonds after abandoning construction of two nuclear plants in Washington state. The consortium had originally planned five reactors; only one was completed. Cost estimates quintupled from initial projections.
Outcome
Short Term
The largest municipal bond default in US history until Detroit in 2013. Investors lost billions; ratepayers faced decades of debt payments for unfinished plants.
Long Term
The default made utilities and investors deeply risk-averse toward nuclear construction, contributing to the 34-year gap in new orders.
Why It's Relevant Today
The WPPSS pattern—optimistic cost estimates, subscription-dependent financing, cost escalations driving subscriber withdrawals—repeated almost exactly with NuScale's CFPP forty years later.
South Korean Nuclear Standardization (1978-Present)
1978 - Present
What Happened
South Korea adopted France's fleet-based approach, developing two domestically designed reactor generations and building 8-12 units of each. KEPCO maintains centralized project management. The country now builds reactors for roughly $2,200/kW—one-seventh of US costs.
Outcome
Short Term
South Korea achieved 31.7% nuclear electricity share. Construction times fell consistently as experience accumulated.
Long Term
Korean companies won the $20 billion UAE Barakah contract over established Western competitors. Korea is positioned as a nuclear exporter while the US imports reactor components.
Why It's Relevant Today
Korea proves the cost gap isn't inevitable. The difference is institutional: standardized designs, experienced supply chains, regulatory stability, and fleet-based learning curves.
