Venezuela opposition walks fine line over U.S. oil deal

Overview

Updated 5 days ago

Venezuela's opposition backed the U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro in January. Now the oil deal Washington signed with his replacement is testing their loyalty to America's arrangement against their democratic project.

The agreement gives the U.S. government majority control over 65 billion barrels of reserves through a 100-year structure negotiated without opposition input. Machado calls it 'saddening and angering' but stops short of rejecting it — opposing Washington would cost the opposition its only real backer.

Why it matters

The U.S. controls 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's oil, but the deal's terms may entrench an unelected interim government and delay elections.

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Key Indicators

65 billion barrels

Venezuelan reserves under U.S. majority control

The deal gives the U.S. government control over most of the country's reserves through the NABEP venture.

100 years

Concession term

Critics, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies, note the term is not covered by Venezuela's oil law, leaving it constitutionally fragile.

22%

Rodríguez approval rating

AtlasIntel survey after her botched response to twin earthquakes that killed more than 6,500 people.

20%

State Department purchase right

The State Department can buy 20% of NABEP's oil output at production cost, with first refusal on the remaining 80%.

300+

Political prisoners held by Rodríguez government

A central reason opposition leaders question the legitimacy of any agreement she signs.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

People Involved

Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez

Acting president of Venezuela

Acting president since Maduro's capture in January 2026; approval rating near 22%

María Corina Machado

Opposition leader; Nobel Peace Prize laureate

Wants to be next president; has not rejected the oil deal

Nicolás Maduro Moros

Former president of Venezuela

Captured by U.S. forces in January 2026

Donald Trump

U.S. president

Overseeing the deal; prefers dealing with Rodríguez

Risa Grais-Targow

Latin America director at Eurasia Group

Analyst tracking the deal's political incentives

Robert S. McAnnally

President of energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy

Analyst of the deal's political vulnerability

Organizations Involved

North America Blue Energy Partners (NABEP)

U.S.-Venezuelan joint venture

Vehicle for U.S. control of Venezuelan oil output

The corporate vehicle giving the U.S. government majority control over Venezuelan oil production.

U.S. Department of State

Federal agency

Holds purchase rights over NABEP output

Can buy 20% of NABEP output at production cost, with first refusal on the remaining 80%.

Vente Venezuela

Opposition political party

Machado's party; internal pressure against the deal

The opposition movement questioning whether agreements signed by Rodríguez can hold.

National Assembly of Venezuela

Legislature

Approved the oil agreement this week

Legislature that voted to approve the deal, with some opposition lawmakers abstaining.

Timeline

January 2026 September 2026

6 events Latest: 7 days ago

Tap a bar to jump to that date

September 2026
Opposition in a political bind over the deal
Latest Analysis

Reports detail how the deal forces opposition to choose between backing Washington and pursuing democratic transition.
7 days ago
National Assembly approves oil deal
Vote

Venezuela's legislature approves; some opposition lawmakers abstain, demanding the written terms first.
September 2nd, 2026
Machado speaks at Bled forum
Statement

Machado says development requires democracy but avoids condemning the oil deal itself.
September 1st, 2026
August 2026
U.S.-Venezuela oil deal announced
Agreement

Trump and Rodríguez announce a 100-year arrangement giving U.S. control over most Venezuelan oil; NABEP created.
August 28th, 2026
June 2026
Earthquakes kill thousands in Venezuela
Crisis

Twin earthquakes kill over 6,500; Rodríguez's botched response sinks her approval rating to 22%.
June 15th, 2026
January 2026
U.S. captures Maduro; Rodríguez takes over
Military action

U.S. forces capture Nicolás Maduro; his vice president Delcy Rodríguez assumes the presidency.
January 15th, 2026

Scenarios

Deal holds through Rodríguez's term; elections slip past 2028

Likely Resolves by Jun 1, 2028

Discussed by: Eurasia Group's Risa Grais-Targow; economist Ricardo Hausmann

Trump prioritizes the deal over elections, and Rodríguez slow-walks transition talks while the opposition lacks leverage. The U.S. gives her political cover, no credible election date materializes, and Washington's interest in stable oil access keeps her in place through Maduro's term, which ends in 2030.

Elections happen; a new government repudiates the deal

Possible Resolves by Mar 1, 2029

Discussed by: Rapidan Energy's Bob McNally; opposition figures like José Amalio Graterol; Center for Strategic and International Studies

A Democrat wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election and reconsiders the agreement, or Washington's promised transition finally forces a vote. A freely elected Venezuelan government — likely Machado's — declares the 100-year arrangement unconstitutional under Venezuela's oil law and cancels or renegotiates NABEP's terms.

Trump pushes elections; deal survives with renegotiation

Possible Resolves by Jun 1, 2027

Discussed by: Al Jazeera's analysis of Washington's three-phase plan

Trump extracts concessions from Rodríguez — a firm election date — in exchange for keeping the deal in place. Opposition joins a renegotiated agreement, winning amendments that address constitutional concerns. Venezuela votes in 2027 or early 2028, and Machado leads after the ballot.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

March 1938

Mexico's 1938 oil expropriation

President Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized foreign oil companies holding decade-old concessions granted under earlier governments, including the Porfirio Díaz era, creating the state company Pemex. The move followed a long labor dispute with Anglo-American firms.

Then

The U.S. and Britain protested; Mexico repaid claims over years while keeping control of its oil.

Now

The expropriation established that resource concessions made under one government can be annulled by a later one.

Why this matters now

That is the legal risk shadowing the 100-year U.S. deal if Venezuela holds free elections and a new government declares it unconstitutional.

April 1993

Chevron's Tengiz deal with Kazakhstan (1993)

Chevron signed a $20 billion agreement to develop the Tengiz oil field with Kazakhstan's authoritarian president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had dissolved parliament and repressed opponents. Negotiated with little transparency, the deal became the pillar of U.S.-Kazakh economic ties.

Then

It brought hundreds of millions in annual revenue to Nazarbayev's government and gave his regime Western legitimacy.

Now

TengizChevroil still operates today, showing a resource deal with an autocrat can survive for decades and deepen his hold on power.

Why this matters now

Venezuelan opposition figures argue the U.S. deal does the same for Rodríguez — a revenue stream and U.S. legitimacy that reduces pressure for elections.

2008-2009

Iraq's contested oil contracts (2008-2009)

Iraq's central government signed service contracts giving international majors control of its biggest oil fields, but the Kurdish regional government argued the 2005 constitution let it sign its own deals. Two sets of contracts coexisted with conflicting legal claims.

Then

The contracts went ahead, but disputes over which were valid persisted for years.

Now

The ambiguity became a permanent fault line in Iraqi oil governance and a model for how contested-constitution deals can be exploited later.

Why this matters now

Critics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies warn the U.S.-Venezuela deal's unclear legal footing invites the same kind of challenge.