Venezuela opposition walks fine line over U.S. oil deal
Money Moves
Machado returned to Venezuela on Oct. 25 and says Washington has laid out a path to 2027 elections. Rubio met Venezuela's foreign minister Nov. 2 to push a three-phase transition plan, while Machado says the oil contract lacks transparency.
María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela on Oct. 25, and the U.S. has since laid out a sequence for presidential elections in 2027. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Venezuelan Foreign Minister Oliver Blanco on Nov. 2 to reaffirm a three-phase plan. It runs from stabilization and economic recovery to political reconciliation and a democratic transition.
The oil deal gives Washington majority control of 65 billion barrels of reserves U.S. crude imports from Venezuela averaged 701,000 barrels per day in July, the highest since May 2017, before falling to 655,000 in August. Machado says the NABEP contract lacks transparency but has promised to honor legally signed contracts.
Why it matters
A U.S. venture with rights to 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil may entrench an unelected government.
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Key Indicators
100 years
Concession term (disputed)
Washington says 100 years; PDVSA's president says 25 years, renewable. Critics at CSIS say the term is not covered by Venezuela's oil law. Rice University's Francisco Monaldi says only about 10 billion barrels can realistically be developed within the 25-year term the law allows.
35%
Pentagon equity stake in NABEP parent
The Pentagon is to take 35% of NABEP's parent company. Economist Francisco Monaldi says the plan is not legally possible under U.S. law.
701,000 b/d
U.S. crude imports from Venezuela, July 2026
Highest monthly average since May 2017; imports fell to 655,000 b/d in August, according to the EIA.
15 events
Latest: 5 days ago
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November 2026
U.S. oil imports from Venezuela hit highest since 2017
LatestData
U.S. crude imports from Venezuela averaged 701,000 barrels per day in July, the most since May 2017, then fell to 655,000 in August, the EIA reported.
Rubio meets Venezuelan foreign minister
Meeting
Rubio and Oliver Blanco discussed Venezuela's political future. The State Department said Washington reaffirmed Trump's three-phase plan: stabilization, economic recovery and political reconciliation, and democratic transition.
October 2026
U.S. outlines timeline for Venezuelan elections
Diplomacy
A State Department official said nominating committees will select new judges for the top court and electoral court by around the end of 2026. Rodríguez is then expected to declare the presidency vacant, triggering a six-month deadline for elections.
Machado says U.S. proposed 2027 elections
Statement
In her first substantive remarks since returning, Machado said Rubio laid out a sequence making clear presidential elections will be held in 2027. She said she would ensure eligible Venezuelans can vote.
Machado returns to Venezuela
Development
María Corina Machado returned after earlier attempts failed, thanking Trump and Rubio and saying she came to organize a movement ahead of elections.
September 2026
Rodríguez pledges elections at U.N., offers no date
Diplomacy
Rodríguez told the U.N. General Assembly that 'there will be elections' in Venezuela and that her government has begun talks with opposition groups. She gave no timetable and thanked President Trump.
Trump meets Rodríguez in New York
Meeting
Rodríguez hailed a 'historic meeting' with Trump on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, discussing debt restructuring, energy, mining and foreign investment with U.S. officials.
Machado's team fails three attempts to bring her home
Development
María Corina Machado remained unable to return to Venezuela. Her team said three attempts to travel from Panama between Sept. 21 and 22 failed: a boat trip was canceled, and two planned flights did not take off.
PDVSA chief disputes 100-year term of oil deal
Disclosure
PDVSA president Héctor Obregón said the contract runs 25 years, renewable by mutual agreement, contradicting the White House's 100-year framing. Economist Francisco Monaldi told El País the Pentagon's plan to take 35% of NABEP's shares is not legally possible.
Opposition in a political bind over the deal
Analysis
Reports detail how the deal forces opposition to choose between backing Washington and pursuing democratic transition.
National Assembly approves oil deal
Vote
Venezuela's legislature approves; some opposition lawmakers abstain, demanding the written terms first.
Machado speaks at Bled forum
Statement
Machado says development requires democracy but avoids condemning the oil deal itself.
August 2026
U.S.-Venezuela oil deal announced
Agreement
Trump and Rodríguez announce a 100-year arrangement giving U.S. control over most Venezuelan oil; NABEP created.
June 2026
Earthquakes kill thousands in Venezuela
Crisis
Twin earthquakes kill over 6,500; Rodríguez's botched response sinks her approval rating to 22%.
January 2026
U.S. captures Maduro; Rodríguez takes over
Military action
U.S. forces capture Nicolás Maduro; his vice president Delcy Rodríguez assumes the presidency.
Scenarios
1
Deal holds through Rodríguez's term; elections slip past 2028
Trump prioritizes the deal over elections, and Rodríguez slow-walks transition talks while the opposition lacks leverage. The U.S. gives her political cover, no credible election date materializes, and Washington's interest in stable oil access keeps her in place through Maduro's term, which ends in 2030.
2
Elections happen; a new government repudiates the deal
Possible
Resolves by Mar 1, 2029
Discussed by: Rapidan Energy's Bob McNally; opposition figures like José Amalio Graterol; Center for Strategic and International Studies
A Democrat wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election and reconsiders the agreement, or Washington's promised transition finally forces a vote. A freely elected Venezuelan government — likely Machado's — declares the 100-year arrangement unconstitutional under Venezuela's oil law and cancels or renegotiates NABEP's terms.
3
Trump pushes elections; deal survives with renegotiation
Possible
Resolves by Jun 1, 2027
Discussed by: Al Jazeera's analysis of Washington's three-phase plan
Trump extracts concessions from Rodríguez — a firm election date — in exchange for keeping the deal in place. Opposition joins a renegotiated agreement, winning amendments that address constitutional concerns. Venezuela votes in 2027 or early 2028, and Machado leads after the ballot.
4
Machado stays abroad as elections slip past 2027
Likely
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: UPI reporting on failed return attempts; opposition figures monitoring transition talks
Rodríguez told the U.N. elections will come but named no date. Machado cannot re-enter Venezuela to campaign, and the government's 'political dialogue with opposition sectors' has no calendar. Washington is not pressing publicly for a vote, so the interim arrangement holds past Maduro's term, which ends in 2030.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
April 1993
Chevron's Tengiz deal with Kazakhstan (1993)
Chevron signed a $20 billion agreement to develop the Tengiz oil field with Kazakhstan's authoritarian president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had dissolved parliament and repressed opponents. Negotiated with little transparency, the deal became the pillar of U.S.-Kazakh economic ties.
Then
It brought hundreds of millions in annual revenue to Nazarbayev's government and gave his regime Western legitimacy.
Now
TengizChevroil still operates today, showing a resource deal with an autocrat can survive for decades and deepen his hold on power.
Why this matters now
Venezuelan opposition figures argue the U.S. deal does the same for Rodríguez — a revenue stream and U.S. legitimacy that reduces pressure for elections.
2 of 3
March 1938
Mexico's 1938 oil expropriation
President Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized foreign oil companies holding decade-old concessions granted under earlier governments, including the Porfirio Díaz era, creating the state company Pemex. The move followed a long labor dispute with Anglo-American firms.
Then
The U.S. and Britain protested; Mexico repaid claims over years while keeping control of its oil.
Now
The expropriation established that resource concessions made under one government can be annulled by a later one.
Why this matters now
That is the legal risk shadowing the 100-year U.S. deal if Venezuela holds free elections and a new government declares it unconstitutional.
3 of 3
2008-2009
Iraq's contested oil contracts (2008-2009)
Iraq's central government signed service contracts giving international majors control of its biggest oil fields, but the Kurdish regional government argued the 2005 constitution let it sign its own deals. Two sets of contracts coexisted with conflicting legal claims.
Then
The contracts went ahead, but disputes over which were valid persisted for years.
Now
The ambiguity became a permanent fault line in Iraqi oil governance and a model for how contested-constitution deals can be exploited later.
Why this matters now
Critics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies warn the U.S.-Venezuela deal's unclear legal footing invites the same kind of challenge.
