1
Audit finishes on schedule and Batch Zero resumes
Possible
Resolves by May 20, 2027
Discussed by: Baker Botts, Gibson Dunn, and other energy-law analysts tracking the process
ERCOT completes verification within its stated window, most financed projects clear, and the operator restarts Batch Zero classification notices. The pause becomes a delay rather than a lasting barrier, and serious developers keep their place in line.
2
Audit shrinks the queue as speculative projects fall away
Likely
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: PUCT Chair Thomas Gleeson and grid analysts who call the 474 GW figure inflated
The audit exposes many duplicate or unfinanced requests, and the headline queue drops sharply once placeholders are removed. Gleeson has argued the number must be refined into something usable for planning, and the review is the tool to do it.
3
Developers pivot to off-grid power to skip the gate
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Beatty & Wozniak and other firms flagging behind-the-meter strategies
Facing a slower front-door queue, at least one major developer announces a large Texas data center powered mostly by dedicated on-site or behind-the-meter generation. That route sidesteps the interconnection audit but shifts reliability risk onto private generation.
4
Legislature hands PUCT broader large-load authority
Uncertain
Resolves by Jul 1, 2027
Discussed by: PUCT Chair Thomas Gleeson, who says new legislation is needed
The 2027 legislative session takes up Gleeson's call for stronger tools, passing a law that expands the commission's power over how large loads connect, disclose, and curtail. Abbott signs it, giving the gatekeeping approach a firmer legal footing.
5
ERCOT misses its December 10 filing date
Possible
Resolves by Dec 10, 2026
Discussed by: ERCOT senior vice president Chad Seely and the grid operator's filings with the PUCT
The verification report slips, and with it the restart of Batch Zero. ERCOT has already told commissioners it will not finish the Batch Zero interconnection studies by April 9, 2027 and has not set a replacement date, so each delay pushes the first wave of large-load connections further out.