On October 22 the army said it had retaken the Bakori base in Blue Nile state, about 55 days after the Rapid Support Forces and their allies overran it. The 4th Infantry Division said its Martyr Adrob and Al-Naba Al-Yaqin forces cleared Bakori, also called Bukuri, and the nearby Akleili area.
The coalition is not conceding. On October 20 the Sudan Founding Alliance, which includes the RSF and the SPLM-N faction led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu, said it had taken Al-Birka and a military camp, and an RSF commander there said he would push on toward the state capital, Ed Damazin. More than 73,000 people have fled Kurmuk since March, and drone strikes hit Ed Damazin in September.
Why it matters
Who holds Blue Nile controls the gateway to central Sudan and a dam that regulates water for millions downstream.
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Key Indicators
~55 days
Bakori under RSF
From the RSF and SPLM-N takeover on August 28 to the army's claim to have retaken the base on October 22.
73,000+
Fled Kurmuk
People who left the border town after successive waves of fighting since March, according to UNHCR.
23,000+
Displaced in August
People who left Geisan and Al Kurmuk localities between August 11 and 30, counted by IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix.
~106 days
RSF control of Kurmuk
The town was held by the RSF and its allies from March 24 until the army's July 8 recapture.
7.3 billion m³
Al-Roseires Dam capacity
The nearby dam is the main regulator of Blue Nile waters in Sudan.
16 events
Latest: October 22nd, 2026 · 3 weeks ago
Showing 8 of 16
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October 2026
Army retakes Bakori base and Akleili area
LatestTerritorial
The 4th Infantry Division said its Martyr Adrob and Al-Naba Al-Yaqin forces recaptured Bakori, also called Bukuri, and the Akleili area. It also said it shot down a drone that crossed from Ethiopia.
RSF-led alliance claims capture of Al-Birka
Territorial
The Sudan Founding Alliance said its forces took the Al-Birka area and a military camp in Blue Nile and seized vehicles and weapons. RSF field commander Ali Al-Reno, speaking from Al-Birka, said he would advance on Ed Damazin; army General Jamal Al-Shaheed said fighting continued there.
Army says it repelled attack in Sally area
Military operation
The 4th Infantry Division said it stopped an RSF and SPLM-N attack on its positions in the Sally area on Blue Nile's eastern axis. Its statement named the forces of Joseph Tuka among the attackers.
Army says it repelled assault in Kurmuk locality
Military operation
The army said it stopped an attack by an RSF and SPLM-N alliance in the Al-Baraka area of Kurmuk locality.
Army advances near Keren Keren
Territorial
Kurmuk locality authorities said the army and allied forces took ground in the Keren Keren administrative unit, including Balbung, Midel and Khor al-Hassan.
September 2026
Drones strike Ed Damazin
Attack
Coalition drone strikes hit fuel stations, the airport and a hospital in the Blue Nile capital on September 13 and 14, ACLED reported.
Coalition seizes six villages in Kurmuk locality
Territorial
The Sudan Founding Alliance, which includes the RSF and the SPLM-N faction led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu, took six villages in Al Kurmuk locality, according to ACLED.
August 2026
RSF and SPLM-N overrun bases at Bakori and Surkum
Territorial
The coalition attacked army positions at Bakori in Geisan locality and Surkum in Kurmuk locality at the same time, and control of both changed hands. About 11,000 more people fled Geisan over the next two days.
Bridge to Ed Damazin destroyed
Infrastructure
The Khor Tamat bridge on the route from the Bakori area to Ed Damazin was destroyed, cutting Amoura, Bakori and the wider Geisan area off from the state capital.
Mass graves found in Kurmuk
Atrocity report
Army forces found graves in northeast Kurmuk holding 25 civilians, including women, children and hospital staff. The locality commissioner attributed the killings to the RSF's occupation; the report carried no independent confirmation.
July 2026
Army claims recapture of Kurmuk
Territorial
The army says it has retaken Kurmuk, along with the areas of Sirkum and Mugaja. Independent battlefield verification remains limited.
Large-scale offensive on Kurmuk begins
Military operation
The army launches a heavy assault on RSF front-line positions around Kurmuk after hours of fighting.
June 2026
Army pushes to the Ethiopian border
Territorial
The 4th Infantry Division takes areas within a kilometer of Ethiopia, retaking the Al-Bar area in Geissan district.
May 2026
Army retakes Khor Hassan
Territorial
The army recaptures the border town of Khor Hassan as its counteroffensive closes in on Kurmuk.
March 2026
RSF and allies seize Kurmuk
Territorial
The RSF and SPLM-N capture Kurmuk, Blue Nile's third-largest town, in a major offensive across the state's south.
January 2026
New front opens in Blue Nile
Escalation
Sudan reports RSF and SPLM-N fighters attacking Blue Nile State from South Sudan, clashing with the army's 4th Infantry Division.
Scenarios
1
Army holds Kurmuk and seals the Ethiopian border
Deadline passed (Oct 8, 2026)
Discussed by: Sudan Tribune, ACLED analysts
The army consolidates control of Kurmuk and the surrounding crossings, cutting RSF resupply routes from Ethiopia. Fighting shifts away from the town as the RSF looks elsewhere. This would confirm the momentum the army has shown since May and hand it the gateway toward central Sudan.
2
RSF and SPLM-N counterattack and retake Kurmuk
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: The National, ACLED
The RSF and its SPLM-N allies mount a counteroffensive, exploiting local terrain and cross-border support to reverse the army's July gains. Kurmuk has already changed hands once this year. A second flip would show neither side can hold the town, keeping Blue Nile a contested corridor.
Combat in Blue Nile spreads to the Al-Roseires Dam, the main regulator of Blue Nile waters. Damage or a fight for control there would threaten water and power supply well beyond the front line and draw in wider regional concern over Nile flows.
4
RSF and SPLM-N retake Kurmuk for a second time
Possible
Resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Discussed by: ACLED, Sudan War Monitor
The coalition has already recaptured bases at Bakori and Surkum and pushed into Kurmuk locality in September. Another push on the town would repeat the pattern since March, when control changed hands twice in four months.
5
Drone strikes on Ed Damazin become a sustained campaign
Possible
Resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Discussed by: ACLED
The Sudan Founding Alliance, which includes the RSF and Abdelaziz al-Hilu's SPLM-N faction, hit fuel stations, the airport and a hospital in Ed Damazin on September 13 and 14. Repeated strikes would pull the state capital into the front line and strain hospitals and supply routes.
Historical Context
2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 2
Early 2026
RSF captures El Fasher (2026)
After a long siege, the RSF took El Fasher, the army's last major stronghold in Darfur. The fall gave the paramilitaries near-total control of Sudan's west and freed fighters to open new fronts elsewhere.
Then
The army lost its foothold in Darfur, and civilians faced mass displacement and reported atrocities.
Now
The RSF could redirect forces toward contested regions like Blue Nile, widening the war's geography.
Why this matters now
The Blue Nile offensive drew on RSF momentum built after Darfur. It shows how a win in one region reshapes the map in another.
2 of 2
September 2011
Blue Nile and South Kordofan war (2011)
After South Sudan split away, fighting broke out between Sudan's army and SPLM-N rebels in Blue Nile and South Kordofan. The rebels held rural areas near the Ethiopian and South Sudanese borders for years.
Then
Tens of thousands fled into Ethiopia and South Sudan as the army bombed rebel-held zones.
Now
The SPLM-N kept a durable presence in Blue Nile, roots that shaped which fighters joined the 2026 offensive.
Why this matters now
The same rebel movement and the same border geography drive today's fight. Blue Nile has been contested ground for over a decade.
