1
Moscow retaliates against Montenegro
Likely
Resolves by Mar 1, 2027
Discussed by: Kremlin statements, Russian state media
Russia responds with diplomatic countermeasures: expelling Montenegrin diplomats, banning officials, or imposing visa restrictions. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova have already signaled an official response, saying diplomats would investigate and protect the rights of those expelled. The intensity of retaliation likely tracks whether Moscow views this as a routine expulsion or a deliberate provocation tied to EU accession.
2
Montenegro deepens crackdown on Russian influence networks
Possible
Resolves by Jun 1, 2027
Discussed by: Montenegrin officials, EU-aligned security analysts
The expulsion becomes a template for further action. Montenegro's security services, working with EU and other Western partners, identify and expel additional Russian operatives as the November 1 visa regime takes effect and accession negotiations intensify. Prime Minister Spajic's warning that 'no one will jeopardize our European future' suggests political backing for continued operations.
3
Zvinchuk case fades as Russian networks shift tactics
Unlikely
Resolves by Jun 1, 2027
Discussed by: Western counterintelligence analysts
Moscow avoids direct confrontation over the expulsions, instead relocating its information operations to other channels or countries with weaker enforcement. The case becomes a footnote in Montenegro's accession progress, with attention shifting to the November visa regime and the 2028 target date.
4
Rybar operates from Belgrade
Deadline passed (Nov 1, 2026)
Discussed by: Srpske Novine, OCCRP
Serbia is not an EU member, so the EU entry ban on Zvinchuk does not apply there. He said the group will stay in Belgrade a few days and had not bought Moscow tickets. Rybar could keep publishing from Serbia, which has warmer ties to Moscow, while Montenegro continues expelling Russian operatives.
5
Montenegro probes how Zvinchuk entered
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Office of Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic
Milatovic's office asked security institutions to establish how a sanctioned individual entered and stayed in Montenegro, and whether authorities knew. It wants the Defense and Security Council informed. The review could tighten vetting ahead of the November visa regime.
6
Moscow retaliates with arrests of Westerners
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Dmitry Medvedev, Russian state media
Medvedev, Russia's deputy Security Council chairman, suggested Russian authorities could replenish their prisoner-exchange fund by arresting European and American citizens in response to Zvinchuk's detention. Such action would mark a sharp escalation beyond diplomatic expulsions and would draw a coordinated Western response.
7
Zvinchuk returns to the Balkans
Possible
Resolves by Oct 9, 2027
Discussed by: Zvinchuk himself, in remarks reported by BBC News na srpskom
Zvinchuk said after his expulsion that he would return to the Balkans, even though Montenegro barred him for a year and Serbia, Bosnia and other neighbours have their own entry rules. A return would test whether the October expulsion changed anything on the ground or only moved him along.
8
A Hubbard-Zvinchuk swap is confirmed
Unlikely
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Discussed by: Former US officials and commentators cited by Vijesti
Hubbard's release four days after Zvinchuk's expulsion led to speculation that the two were linked, including from a former US ambassador. Putin, Trump and Peskov all deny any exchange. Confirmation would require documents or testimony showing the cases were negotiated together.
