Reasoning Unlocks AGI by 2030
Scaling current reasoning architectures plus one or two transformer-level breakthroughs achieves artificial general intelligence within five years. Models master multi-step planning, self-correction, and abstract transfer learning across domains. Economic impact accelerates dramatically as AI systems handle complex professional work end-to-end—legal analysis, scientific research, software architecture. This triggers the 10% GDP growth Satya Nadella defines as true AGI arrival. Microsoft's exclusive OpenAI rights expire, sparking acquisition battles. Regulatory frameworks struggle to keep pace with capabilities advancing faster than evaluation methods.
