1
First fab online in 2029, second approved
Likely
Resolves by End of 2029
Discussed by: Reuters, GlobalFoundries executives
Construction begins this year at the Malta site. The partners decide on the second fab before end of 2028. If both proceed, the U.S. gains about 1.8 million wafers of annual capacity. GlobalFoundries earns management and technology fees for at least 20 years.
2
Second fab delayed or cancelled
Possible
Resolves by End of 2028
Discussed by: Reuters, market analysts
The partners decide before end of 2028 whether to build the second fab. A downturn in chip demand or a shift in U.S.-Japan trade relations could delay or kill it. The first fab would still proceed, but total capacity would be roughly half the original plan.
3
Deal faces political or legal challenges
Possible
Resolves by Jan 20, 2027
Discussed by: The Hill, political analysts
The U.S. government takes a 4% equity stake in GlobalFoundries, rising to 7%. A change in administration or a legal challenge to the equity arrangement could complicate the deal. The trade agreement that enabled it could also be renegotiated.
4
Third fab announced for Malta site
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2028
Discussed by: Albany Business Review
Local coverage said a third fab 'could be in the works' beyond the two announced. No details or timeline given; likely depends on demand and the success of the first two.
5
Funding stops at the first $10 billion
Possible
Resolves by End of 2028
Discussed by: Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, via Streamline
Japan confirmed $10 billion for phase one; the second $10 billion is conditional. If the conditions are not met, only the first fab is built and U.S. capacity gains are roughly halved.
6
Japanese tool makers book the money before the fabs make wafers
Possible
Resolves by End of 2029
Discussed by: Reuters, Plutux Insights
Reuters reported that Japanese equipment makers such as Tokyo Electron stand to gain from the $21 billion, and Plutux Insights argued the cash reaches the tool chain before GlobalFoundries ships a wafer. On that reading, the fabs add U.S. capacity slowly while suppliers collect first.