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Gas-only cars fall below half of global new-car sales for the first time

Gas-only cars fall below half of global new-car sales for the first time

Money Moves

An oil shock from the Middle East conflict pushed buyers toward electric and hybrid cars, and the IEA has raised its 2026 forecast

October 29th, 2026: Analysis links a 16% drop in China's transport oil use to EVs

Overview

Updated Oct 30

Gasoline-only cars fell to 49% of global new-vehicle sales in the first half of 2026, the first time on record they have been below half. The share was 73% as recently as 2021.

The oil shock from the Middle East conflict is still pushing buyers toward plugs. The International Energy Agency now expects electric cars to reach 29% of worldwide car sales in 2026, one point above its earlier forecast, after record quarterly sales in several markets. European battery-electric registrations were up 60% in September from a year earlier.

Why it matters

Gas-only cars are now a minority of global new-car sales. Buyers who switch to electric rarely go back, so the shift may be permanent.

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Key Indicators

49%
Gas-only share of global new-car sales, H1 2026
Down from 52% a year earlier and 73% in 2021, per Mobility Global data.
29%
IEA forecast for electric cars' share of 2026 global sales
One percentage point above the agency's earlier projection, after record quarterly sales in several markets.
17%
Battery-electric share of global sales, H1 2026
BEV sales grew 12% to 6.87 million units worldwide.
18%
Hybrid share of global sales, H1 2026
Hybrids outsold battery-electrics, 7.27 million to 6.87 million units.
6.87M
Battery-electric vehicles sold in H1 2026
Sales rose 12% year over year per Mobility Global.
73%
Gas-only share of global sales in 2021
Baseline before the recent acceleration away from gasoline.

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People Involved

YK
Yoshiaki Kawano
Associate director at Mobility Global
Lead analyst quoted on the H1 2026 sales data
 Fatih Birol
Fatih Birol
Executive Director, International Energy Agency
Said in October 2026 that diesel costs about 200% more than before the Middle East conflict

Organizations Involved

Mobility Global
Mobility Global
Automotive data firm
Produced the H1 2026 global sales data

Automotive market data firm that tracks global vehicle sales by powertrain.
International Energy Agency
International Energy Agency
Intergovernmental energy agency
Raised its 2026 electric-car sales forecast after record quarterly sales in several markets

Paris-based agency that tracks global energy markets and publishes the annual Global EV Outlook.
European Automobile Manufacturers' Association
European Automobile Manufacturers' Association
Trade association
Provides European sales data

Brussels-based trade body tracking European car sales by fuel type across 31 major countries.

Timeline

2021 October 2026

11 events Latest: October 29th, 2026 · 1 week ago Showing 8 of 11
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Analysis links a 16% drop in China's transport oil use to EVs

    Latest Research

    The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found China's transport-related oil consumption fell 16% between April and June, with more electric cars and more frequent charging of hybrids among the causes.

  2. Damascus drivers switch to electric cars as petrol jumps 26%

    Market data

    A Damascus dealer told AFP he now sells three to four electric cars for every petrol one, after a government price rise lifted petrol costs 26%.

  3. IEA chief says diesel is up about 200% since the war began

    Market data

    Fatih Birol said LNG prices have climbed 250% and diesel about 200% from pre-war levels, and that EV sales outside China ran 60% above prior trends over eight months.

  4. Slashdot amplifies the H1 data story

    Report

    Slashdot picks up Electrek's report, spreading the milestone to a wider audience.

  5. Nikkei reports gas-only share fell to 49% in H1

    Market data

    Mobility Global data shows gasoline-only vehicles below half of global sales for first time.

  6. IEA raises 2026 electric-car forecast to 29% of global sales

    Forecast

    The agency lifted its projection by one percentage point after quarterly electric-car sales set records in several key markets during the energy crisis.

  7. EU battery-electric registrations pass petrol for the first time

    Market data

    ACEA data shows battery-electric registrations at 1,641,333 against petrol's 1,634,733 through August, as petrol registrations fell 18.6%.

  8. China cuts EV tax incentives

    Policy

    Beijing rolls back EV tax breaks, trimming Chinese BEV sales 3% to 3.44 million.

  9. Middle East conflict spurs oil shock

    Geopolitical

    Strait of Hormuz crisis pushes oil above $100 and gasoline to record highs.

  10. US ends federal EV tax credit

    Policy

    Trump administration ends the federal EV tax credit, slowing North American adoption.

  11. Gas-only cars hold 73% of global sales

    Market data

    Gasoline-only vehicles dominated the global market, per Mobility Global data.

Scenarios

1

Gas-only cars stay below half of global sales for full-year 2026

Likely Resolves by Jan 31, 2027

Discussed by: Mobility Global analysts and Nikkei

The H1 figure of 49% holds for the full year if oil prices stay elevated. Mobility Global's Kawano notes few EV buyers return to gasoline, and that demand is increasingly driven by lower running costs rather than subsidies. With the market still in an oil shock, analysts expect the share to stay under 50%.

2

Oil shock eases and gas share rebounds above 50%

Unlikely Resolves by Jan 31, 2027

Discussed by: Electrek, which notes the H1 figure was taken mid-crisis

If the Strait of Hormuz disruption resolves and oil prices fall, some price-sensitive buyers could shift back toward cheaper gas vehicles. Electrek cautions that the 49% is a six-month reading captured during an oil shock, and the full year may look different. This path requires fuel prices to drop sharply in H2 2026.

3

Battery-electric outsells hybrids by end of 2026

Unlikely Resolves by Jan 31, 2027

Discussed by: Mobility Global; hybrids led BEVs in H1

BEVs grew 12% to 6.87 million units in H1 while hybrids grew 10% to 7.27 million, a gap of about 400,000. For BEVs to take the lead for the full year, battery-electric sales would need to surge in H2 while hybrids flatten or fall. Electrek data shows BEV growth concentrated in Europe, Southeast Asia and Oceania, with China and North America flat or down on subsidy cuts.

4

Electric cars reach 29% of global car sales in 2026

Likely Resolves by Jan 31, 2027

Discussed by: International Energy Agency

The IEA raised its 2026 forecast by one percentage point to 29% of worldwide car sales after record quarterly sales in several markets. Hitting it means holding the third-quarter pace to year-end, with Chinese tax incentives cut and the US federal credit gone.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1900-1910

Early 1900s US: Steam and electric cars outsell petrol (pre-1910)

In the first years of the American auto market, steam and electric cars actually outsold petrol vehicles. Gasoline's status was not yet settled.

Then

The Ford Model T, cheap oil and the filling-station network made gasoline the default fuel within a decade.

Now

Gasoline has been the top powertrain for over a century, making the 2026 milestone the first time it has lost that position.

Why this matters now

This is the only prior period when gasoline was not the dominant car fuel. It frames how significant the 2026 data point is.

1973-1979

1970s oil crises (1973-1979)

The 1973 oil embargo and 1979 Iranian revolution sent fuel prices surging, exposing US dependence on imported oil and the inefficiency of American cars.

Then

Consumers shifted toward smaller, more fuel-efficient Japanese imports, and Congress passed corporate average fuel economy standards in 1975.

Now

The crises permanently pushed the global fleet toward better efficiency and established fuel economy as a policy priority.

Why this matters now

Like today's oil shock, the 1970s crises showed that fuel price spikes trigger lasting shifts in what car buyers choose. The 2026 shift is toward electric and hybrid powertrains.

Sources

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+8
Nikkei Asia Slashdot Electrek Automotive World OilPrice.com The Auto Wire Left Lane News EV Wire AutoGuide International Energy Agency EnergyReader Yale Climate Connections Al-Monitor Khmer Times