Federal forces hold Mekelle, Adigrat, Shire and Adwa, and a caretaker administration with a six-month mandate is now running Tigray. On October 23 its political mobilization chief told Tigrayan fighters to hand over their weapons; a TPLF commander had urged more attacks hours earlier.
The BBC reported on October 29 that Ethiopia has acquired Russian fighter jets and air defence systems, adding to the drones and heavy weapons the TPLF says it cannot match. Eritrean troops crossed the border in early October and Ethiopian drones struck them. At least 52 civilians have been killed since September 23.
Why it matters
Russian warplanes and Eritrean troops could turn a domestic rebellion into a wider Horn of Africa war.
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Key Indicators
52
Civilians killed in Alamata
Killed over three days of fighting around the town, per hospital sources cited by the BBC.
700+
Wounded treated in Tigray
Admitted to hospitals supported by the medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières in recent days.
150,000
People displaced by renewed fighting
Estimated displaced by the end of September, per Foreign Policy.
600,000
Estimated deaths in 2020–2022 war
Estimate by an African Union mediator for the prior two-year Tigray conflict.
7
Armed groups in anti-government alliance
Coalition formed September 20 includes the TPLF and Amhara's Fano militia.
21 events
Latest: October 29th, 2026 · 1 week ago
Showing 8 of 21
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October 2026
BBC reports Ethiopia has acquired Russian fighter jets and air defences
LatestArms
BBC News reported the acquisition of Russian warplanes and air defence systems during the fighting in northern Tigray that began in September.
Caretaker official urges rebels to disarm as commander vows to fight on
Statement
Redae Halefom Woldeselassie, the caretaker administration's chief executive for political and public mobilization, called on fighters to enter a disarmament and reintegration program. A TPLF commander, Fisseha, said hours earlier that attacks on government positions should continue.
Ethiopian Airlines resumes flights to Mekelle
Report
The first flights since the TPLF seized the city's airport on September 23 landed in the regional capital.
PM adviser promises visible change in Tigray
Statement
Getachew Reda, a former Tigray leader advising Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, promised a "visible change" in the region after government-allied units retook Mekelle.
Federal forces enter Adwa without a fight
Conflict
Government forces and allied militia entered the northwestern town, about 40km from Eritrea, a day after TPLF fighters withdrew. Shops closed; reports of looting at hospitals and institutions.
Ethiopia tells UN Security Council of Eritrean incursion
Diplomacy
In a self-defense letter, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of deploying infantry and mechanized units in northern Ethiopia and backing insurgent groups. Eritrea denied it.
Federal forces secure Adigrat and Shire near the border
Conflict
Ethiopian troops and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters reached the outskirts of Adigrat and secured Shire after the TPLF withdrew, advancing to within reach of the Eritrean border.
Ethiopian drones strike Eritrean troops crossing the border
Conflict
ACLED reported Eritrean troops crossed at Zelambesa and Ethiopian military drones targeted them near Idaga Hamus. Eritrea's information minister accused Ethiopia of fabricating a self-defense narrative.
Eritrean soldiers enter Adigrat
Conflict
Eritrean military personnel entered the northern town near the border, a Tigray Peace Force commander said.
Markets reopen in Mekelle
Report
Markets reopened in the regional capital as pro-government forces moved to secure the city after the TPLF pullout.
Airstrikes on Adwa kill 9 people
Conflict
Ethiopian airstrikes on Adwa killed nine people, according to a humanitarian bulletin cited by Reuters.
Federal forces take Mekelle, TPLF withdraws
Conflict
Tigrayan fighters abandoned the regional capital as federal troops and allied militias advanced. The TPLF confirmed it had withdrawn from Mekelle.
Communications restored in Mekelle
Report
Phone and internet service returned to the city for the first time in over a week, a local journalist told AFP, as federal troops patrolled key sites.
Federal forces push north, capture Agula and Wukro
Conflict
Ethiopian troops and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters took the two towns on the main road from Mekelle toward the Eritrean border town of Adigrat.
Ethiopia closes Asmara embassy
Diplomacy
Addis Ababa orders 10 Eritrean diplomats out, accusing them of threatening national security.
Eritrea cuts diplomatic ties with Ethiopia
Diplomacy
Asmara responds to the embassy closure by severing relations with its neighbor.
September 2026
Hospital sources report 52 civilian deaths in Alamata
Report
Doctors tell the BBC 52 civilians died, including children; MSF says 700+ wounded are being treated.
Federal forces enter Alamata
Conflict
Pro-government troops take the town after three days of heavy fighting and push north toward Mekelle.
TPLF seizes three Tigray airports
Conflict
Tigrayan forces seize airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire; fighting spreads into Amhara and Afar.
Seven armed groups form alliance to oust Abiy
Alliance
The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival is announced, including the TPLF and Fano militia.
November 2022
Pretoria Agreement ends first Tigray war
Agreement
Ceasefire signed between Ethiopia's government and the TPLF, ending a two-year civil war.
Scenarios
1
Federal forces capture Mekelle as TPLF sues for peace
Possible
Resolves by Q1 2027
Discussed by: BBC News and allAfrica note federal advantages in armor and air power
Federal forces took Mekelle on October 4 and went on to Adigrat, Shire and Adwa. The TPLF pulled out rather than fight for the capital, and its commanders have since rejected a disarmament offer, so the negotiated exit this scenario assumed has not followed.
2
Tigray war spills into an Ethiopia-Eritrea interstate conflict
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Chatham House and Foreign Policy warn of regional escalation
Ethiopia and Eritrea have already cut diplomatic ties. If Eritrean forces intervene on either side, or federal operations push toward the Eritrean border, the internal conflict becomes an interstate war, repeating the pattern of 1998–2000.
3
African Union brokers a new ceasefire
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: African Union has urged restraint; UN warns of humanitarian disruption
If the fighting stalls and international pressure builds, a new AU-mediated ceasefire could emerge. The Pretoria Agreement set a precedent, but both sides accuse each other of violating it, making renewed talks difficult within the year.
4
TPLF wages guerrilla war from Tigray's countryside
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Washington Post reports TPLF withdrawal from Mekelle; analysts at the Critical Threats Project track a federal three-axis advance
TPLF leaders said they pulled fighters out of Mekelle rather than defend the capital street by street. A rural guerrilla campaign would test whether federal forces can hold territory across Tigray, as happened in 2021 when the TPLF regrouped and counterattacked.
5
Ethiopia and Eritrea slide into direct interstate war
Possible
Discussed by: ACLED, BBC News, and ClickOrlando report Eritrean troops crossing the border and Ethiopian drones attacking them
Eritrean soldiers entered Adigrat and Idaga Hamus, and Ethiopian drones struck them on the road from the Zelambesa border crossing. With Abiy Ahmed pressing for Red Sea port access and Eritrea accusing Ethiopia of inventing a self-defense narrative, the Tigray conflict is becoming an interstate clash.
6
Tigray's fighters split over the disarmament offer
Possible
Resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Discussed by: AP reporting on the Tigray Peace Force and the caretaker administration
The government's reintegration program is aimed at TPLF fighters, but part of the TPLF's old armed wing already fights alongside federal troops as the Tigray Peace Force. If some units hand over weapons while others follow commanders who vow to keep fighting, Tigray gets scattered local clashes instead of a clean end to the war.
Historical Context
2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 2
May 1998 – June 2000
Ethiopia-Eritrea War (1998–2000)
A border dispute over the town of Badme erupted into a full interstate war, with Eritrean and Ethiopian forces fighting along a front stretching hundreds of kilometers.
Then
The Algiers Agreement ended the war in 2000, but the border dispute festered for two decades.
Now
The rivalry reshaped Horn of Africa politics and set the stage for later conflicts, including the 2020 Tigray war.
Why this matters now
It shows how quickly Ethiopia-Eritrea relations can collapse into interstate war, a risk now that both countries have cut diplomatic ties.
2 of 2
November 2020 – November 2022
Tigray War (2020–2022)
Federal forces attacked the TPLF after the regional government held elections the federal government called illegal. A two-year war followed; an African Union mediator estimated about 600,000 deaths.
Then
The Pretoria Agreement in November 2022 brought a ceasefire and disarmament terms, but implementation stalled.
Now
Both sides kept accusing each other of violations, and the deal collapsed into renewed fighting in September 2026.
Why this matters now
This is the direct antecedent: the current fighting is a return to the same war, not a new conflict.
