1
White House extends diesel tax relief into 2027
Possible
Resolves by Jan 15, 2027
Discussed by: Analysts cited by Bloomberg Law and USA Today
If diesel prices stay elevated, the administration extends the deferral or issues a new order covering 2027. The current order's Section 4 already asks Treasury to explore forgiving the deferred taxes, which would ultimately require Congress.
2
Congress cancels deferred diesel tax bills
Unlikely
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Section 4 of the executive order itself
The order directs Treasury to explore legislation eliminating the obligation to pay the deferred taxes. Passing such a law would need a congressional majority and would permanently shift the revenue out of the Highway Trust Fund.
3
Relief expires, deferred diesel taxes come due
Likely
Resolves by Q1 2027
Discussed by: USA Today reporting that experts see limited price impact
The relief window closes December 31. Taxpayers who used dyed diesel on highways during the period would then owe the deferred federal excise tax unless the IRS or Congress acts first.
4
State patchwork limits dyed diesel use
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy (via CBS News)
If states don't waive their bans on dyed diesel on highways, truckers crossing state lines could face penalties, limiting the order's benefit. Nebraska, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia have issued waivers so far.
5
Russian diesel shipments cut pump prices
Possible
Resolves by Nov 30, 2026
Discussed by: FinanceFeeds market analysts
Trump's October 9 deal commits Russia to ship 300,000 metric tons immediately and 500,000 tons in November. The first cargo equals about 14 hours of U.S. distillate demand, so prices would need sustained volumes to move. AAA showed $6.277 a gallon on October 11, essentially unchanged.
6
Treasury declines to declare diesel tax deferral
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: EY Tax News, tax policy analysts
The order requires Treasury Secretary Bessent to find a qualifying event under 26 U.S.C. 7508A, a disaster-relief statute, before deferring the excise tax. If he decides no qualifying event exists, the deferral and penalty waiver would not take effect. No determination had been published as of October 11.