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China picks first researchers for 15-year mega grants

China picks first researchers for 15-year mega grants

Money Moves

NSFC backs 44 young scientists with no short-term performance reviews

October 20th, 2026: Nature reports the selection

Overview

Updated Oct 21

China's main science funder has picked its first 44 researchers for grants that can run 15 years. The National Natural Science Foundation of China chose scientists under 35, women under 38, and nine of the 44 work outside China.

The money arrives in three five-year blocks: 4 million yuan (about US$596,000), then 8 million, then 16 million. Dou Xiankang, the agency's president, says there are no short-term targets, only a check that recipients are in the lab. Continuing past year five is not automatic; in the agency's 2025 review of an older young-scientist track, 62 of 296 finished projects won extra funding and 18 were rated poor.

Why it matters

China is betting that 15 years of quiet lab time buys breakthroughs the usual five-year grant cycle cannot.

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Key Indicators

44
Researchers selected
First cohort of the National Distinguished Young Scientists Fund's 15-year track.
15 years
Maximum grant duration
Structured as three five-year phases, with funding doubling each phase.
4M yuan
Initial 5-year grant value
Roughly US$596,000, doubling to 8M yuan then 16M yuan in later phases.
9
Researchers based outside China
The rest of the 44 are based in mainland China.

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People Involved

Dou Xiankang
Dou Xiankang
President, National Natural Science Foundation of China
Leading the NSFC's shift toward long-cycle funding for young scientists
 Kerry Brown
Kerry Brown
Professor of Chinese studies, King's College London
Commenting on the program's significance for China's research culture
SG
Sebastian Sunday Grève
Associate professor of philosophy, Peking University
Described the scheme as a long-term strategic play

Organizations Involved

National Natural Science Foundation of China
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Government funding agency
Administering the 15-year grant program

China's main state funding agency for basic research.

Timeline

2023 October 2026

6 events Latest: October 20th, 2026 · 3 weeks ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Nature reports the selection

    Latest Media

    The journal confirms the first cohort of 15-year grant recipients, calling it one of the longest research grants offered globally. It says recipients whose first five years end may be considered for a second term, and after ten years another portion is picked for a third.

  2. Dou announces first 44 selections at Shenzhen forum

    Announcement

    NSFC president Dou Xiankang reveals 44 researchers under 35 were chosen, including 9 based overseas.

  3. Exit rules take effect for tech-security risks

    Regulation

    New rules let authorities stop anyone judged a risk to China's technological security from leaving the country.

  4. NSFC pledges 50% boost to early-career grants

    Policy

    The agency adds 12,000 projects through its Young Scientists Fund for early-career researchers.

  5. Graded review shows renewals are selective

    Evaluation

    The NSFC's 2025 annual report recorded 296 completed Distinguished Young Scientist projects given graded reviews: 62 won continued funding at double the amount, and 18 were rated poor, a result fed back to their institutions.

  6. NSFC announces plans for 15-year grants

    Policy

    China's main science funder unveils plans for grants lasting up to 15 years, with funding doubling every five years.

Scenarios

1

NSFC expands 15-year grants to a second cohort

Likely Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Nature, Times Higher Education

If the first cohort shows promise, the NSFC could announce a second round of selections. Dou has said the agency is in talks with the Central Organization Department to create overlapping support for researchers under 30. The program's early success would signal a permanent shift in how China funds young scientists.

2

Overseas-based recipients decline to relocate to China

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Times Higher Education, Asia Times

Only 9 of 44 selected researchers are based overseas. Experts note strict residency mandates, data-governance laws, and new exit rules could deter foreign-based scientists from committing to 15 years in China. One anonymous Chinese scholar in the UK said limited cross-border communication may stifle the open exchange needed for innovation.

3

A recipient wins a major international prize for grant-supported work

Uncertain Resolves by End of 2031

Discussed by: Asia Times

The 15-year horizon is designed to let researchers fail and try again. A Fields Medal, Nobel, or Breakthrough Prize for work supported by the grant would validate the model. The first grants don't expire until around 2041, so the payoff window is long.

4

Few of the first 44 reach the full 15 years

Possible Resolves by End of 2031

Discussed by: Yicai, GFdaily

The 15-year figure is a ceiling, not a guarantee. Only 62 of 296 completed projects on the older Distinguished Young Scientists track won continued funding in the NSFC's 2025 review. If the new cohort's renewal rates look similar, most of the 44 will stop after five years.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

Ongoing since the 1980s

Howard Hughes Medical Institute investigator model

The Howard Hughes Medical Institute began appointing investigators for seven-year terms, funding people rather than specific projects. Investigators were free to change research direction without re-applying for grants.

Then

A study by economists Pierre Azoulay, Joshua Graff Zivin, and Gustavo Manso found HHMI investigators produced about twice as many highly cited papers as comparable NIH-funded scientists — and more flops.

Now

The model became a benchmark for patient capital in science, showing that tolerance for failure correlates with breakthrough output.

Why this matters now

China's 15-year grants adopt the same 'people, not projects' logic, betting that long horizons and failure tolerance produce breakthroughs.

2008 onward

China's Thousand Talents Plan (2008)

China launched a national program to recruit overseas Chinese scientists with large grants and lab support. It drew thousands of researchers back to Chinese universities and institutes.

Then

The plan brought significant talent back to China but drew scrutiny in the US over espionage concerns.

Now

Retention was mixed; some recruits returned abroad, and later iterations of the program adjusted terms to improve retention.

Why this matters now

The 15-year grants are the latest iteration of China's effort to attract and keep top scientific talent, with longer commitments than earlier programs.

Sources

(9)
+3
Nature Times Higher Education South China Morning Post Asia Times ecorr.org.cn Sina Finance Yicai The Paper The Wire China