1
Fiji's Bluebottle force goes operational in 2027
Likely
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: Australian Defence Ministry officials; AFP and Straits Times reporting
Minister Conroy confirmed the first drone will reach Fiji early 2027, with the full contingent following as Ocius scales up production. Fiji operates the drones as sovereign assets and decides whether navy or police command them. A working deployment confirms the Waqa Moana model is viable.
2
Waqa Moana spreads to Vanuatu and Solomon Islands
Possible
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: Minister Conroy's direct bilateral cooperation remarks naming Vanuatu and Solomon Islands
Conroy named Fiji, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu as direct bilateral partners under Australia's Pacific maritime security programs. If the Fiji drone deployment succeeds and Ocius production ramps up, similar deals for other island states likely follow within the A$600 million commitment.
3
China counters with rival Pacific security agreements
Possible
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: Strategic context from the Ocean of Peace Treaty and China's July 2026 South Pacific missile test
China tested a ballistic missile in the South Pacific hours after Australia and Fiji signed their mutual defence pact. The regional competition may push China to offer its own security, policing or surveillance assistance to Pacific nations, reshaping the security balance the drone deal is meant to address.
4
Bluebottle platform expands to Japan
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Defence Connect, citing Ocius and Navy statements
Defence Connect reported Australian Bluebottle uncrewed surface vessels will sail soon to Japanese waters, with the fleet running over 10 now and surpassing 50 once the 40 newly ordered drones arrive. Fiji and Japan deployments together point to Ocius scaling production for multiple Indo-Pacific customers.
5
New Zealand stations uncrewed vessels in Fiji long-term
Possible
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: 1News reporting on New Zealand's Pacific surveillance build-up
New Zealand is expanding maritime surveillance in the Pacific and has more uncrewed vessel support for Fiji in the pipeline, 1News reported. A permanent or recurring NZ deployment would add a second supplier of persistent surveillance alongside Australia's Bluebottles.
6
Drone-flagged vessels lead to prosecutions in Fiji
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Fiji's Defence Minister Pio Tikoduadua and the Fiji Times, describing vessel details passed to authorities
Fiji recorded identification details for 137 vessels of interest and reported them to the relevant agencies. If any of those leads turn into boardings, seizures or charges, the drone trials move from surveillance to enforcement.