1
The rail link stays a declaration
Likely
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: Ecofin Agency, which noted the proposal remains at the planning stage and that no construction agreement was announced
Both governments are already spending on their own lines: TAZARA's Chinese-funded rehabilitation and Angola's Benguela restoration. A new connecting section would need a route survey, a cost estimate and a financier, and none was named. Trade between the two countries is small, which limits the commercial case for a direct link.
2
Three governments sign a deal for the missing section
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2028
Discussed by: Tanzania's presidency, which said an additional section of track is still needed to join the networks
The eastern and western halves are both under rehabilitation. The gap sits between them, and closing it requires Zambia and DR Congo at the table. A trilateral or four-country agreement naming a route and a funding source would move the project from statement to procurement.
3
Lobito reaches the Copperbelt before the connector exists
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2029
Discussed by: Semafor and Reuters, which reported contractor selections on the Zambia-Lobito railway in the same week
The Atlantic route is further along in procurement: contractors have been picked, Webuild holds a Zambian section, and the corridor has American and European backing. If that line carries commercial freight before a connector is contracted, Zambia and Congo gain Atlantic access first and the Indian Ocean link loses urgency.
4
AFC signs EPC contracts for the Zambia-Lobito line
Likely
Resolves by Feb 28, 2027
Discussed by: Africa Finance Corporation, which said it aims to conclude EPC agreements within 8 to 12 weeks of talks starting in November 2026
AFC named preferred bidders on October 27, 2026, and said contract negotiations would begin in November. Signed EPC agreements would fix the price for the Zambian section and move the Atlantic route toward financial close, targeted for late 2027.
5
Zambia and Angola put up viability gap money
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Africa Finance Corporation president Samaila Zubairu, as reported by Zambia Monitor
AFC has asked the two governments for early gap funding after expected international commitments did not arrive. A commitment from Lusaka and Luanda would let construction start before full debt and equity fundraising, which AFC expects in the second quarter of 2027.