Zeke Hausfather

Built World

Co-wrote Carbon Brief's analysis of the 2026 budget

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, the Global Carbon Project said on November 10. The group released the estimate at United Nations climate talks in Antalya, Turkey.

Updated Yesterday

Built World

Skeptical of the 0.35°C per decade estimate

The planet warmed about 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, nearly twice the pace from 1970 to 2015. A study published this week is the first to show that increase is statistically real, not an artifact of El Niño or a few hot years.

Updated Nov 2

Force in Play

As of September 2026: Projecting a 75% chance 2026 beats 2024 as the warmest year on record

The Earth just recorded its joint-hottest month since modern measurements began. Copernicus, the European Union's climate monitoring service, reported Thursday that August 2026 tied July 2023 at 16.96°C, 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels.

Updated Sep 11

New Capabilities

As of May 2026: Helped trigger the scenario debate; broadly supportive of CMIP7 changes

The scenario long used as climate change's 'business as usual' no longer counts. In April 2026, the team building the next generation of global climate models removed SSP5-8.5 (the high-emissions track behind most '4-5°C by 2100' headlines) from CMIP7, which will feed the IPCC's seventh assessment report.

Updated May 31