Kevin Hassett

The Fed's last mile: inflation stuck above target as rate cuts stall

Leading candidate alongside Warsh (39% probability)

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28. Two officials dissented in favor of another quarter-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation is still too high, though he called financial conditions tighter rather than tight.

Updated Oct 31

A weakening U.S. job market forces a Fed pivot under a data blackout

Money Moves

Was the market favorite in December 2025 to succeed Powell; the job went to Kevin Warsh, who is chair as of October 2026.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, in a deeply divided 9–3 vote—the most dissents in six years, bringing the funds rate to 3.5–3.75%. Minutes released December 30 revealed the decision was 'finely balanced,' with officials split over whether weak hiring or inflation poses the greater risk.

Updated Oct 30

Gold hits record $4,620 as DOJ investigation threatens Fed independence

Money Moves

As of May 2026: Nominated by Trump to succeed Powell as Fed Chair in May 2026

On January 30, 2026, President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell's term expires in May. Gold, which had surged to a record $5,626 per ounce amid the constitutional crisis over Powell's criminal investigation, plunged 11% in hours as investors bet Warsh would preserve central bank independence.

Updated May 20

The tanker hunt: Trump’s Venezuela “blockade” turns into Coast Guard seizures

Force in Play

As of May 2026: Downplaying U.S. fuel-price impact; labeling the ships ‘black market’

The U.S. Coast Guard is now chasing a third Venezuela-linked tanker in international waters near Venezuela—under a judicial seizure order. Two other tankers have already been stopped in the past 11 days, including one dramatic helicopter boarding that the administration amplified on social media.

Updated May 15