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Jeff Asher

Jeff Asher

Crime Analyst and Co-founder, AH Datalytics

Appears in 1 story

Notable Quotes

Murder almost certainly fell at the fastest rate ever recorded in 2024 in the United States. The nation's murder rate in 2024 of 5 per 100,000 is the lowest recorded since 2015.

Murder will likely fall again in 2026 but the drop won't be as large as what has been seen over the last few years.

The FBI will likely report the lowest murder rate it has ever recorded when the Reported Crime in the US for 2025 comes out in the second half of 2026.

Stories

America's historic crime drop

Force in Play

Predicts murder will likely fall again in 2026 but not as dramatically

America's murder rate plunged to its lowest level since 1900 in 2025, as homicides fell 21%—the largest single-year drop ever recorded, according to Council on Criminal Justice data from 35 major cities. This followed 2024's historic 14.9% decline, creating an unprecedented two-year reversal. The 2025 rate—projected at 4 per 100,000 when FBI releases nationwide data—represents a complete reversal of the 2020 pandemic spike and brings murder 25% below pre-pandemic levels. Denver saw homicides drop 41%, followed by Washington DC and Omaha at 40%. Experts attribute the decline to reduced alcohol consumption, the slowing opioid epidemic, and community violence intervention programs funded through Biden's American Rescue Plan.

Updated Jan 29