UBS Global Wealth Management

Money Moves

Reaffirmed 7,500 year-end S&P 500 target after April 7 ceasefire; index now at ~7,100, implying ~5-6% further upside

The S&P 500 sat near record highs at the end of February 2026. Seven weeks later, the story of Wall Street's repricing has come full circle: the index fell nearly 10% to a late-March trough after U.S. and Israeli forces launched air strikes against Iran on February 28, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and sending Brent crude above $113 a barrel. The market has since staged a dramatic V-shaped recovery to new all-time highs above 7,100—erasing every war-related loss and turning positive for the year. The catalyst was a two-week ceasefire announced April 7, brokered by Pakistan, which halted 40 days of strikes. On April 17, Iran's foreign minister declared the strait 'completely open' for commercial vessels, sending Brent crude plunging more than 10% to below $90 a barrel.

Updated Apr 17