Government of Cuba

Force in Play

Confirmed contacts with Washington but says it is not negotiating, after losing Venezuelan and Mexican oil

The United States has imposed economic pressure on Cuba for 64 years. Now, for the first time, Washington is threatening to punish any country that sells oil to the island. President Trump's January 29 executive order creates a tariff mechanism targeting third countries that supply Cuban fuel—a significant escalation that goes beyond traditional bilateral sanctions to coerce allies and trading partners into joining an energy blockade. The strategy has proven devastatingly effective: Cuba's national power grid collapsed entirely on March 17, 2026, leaving approximately 10 million people without electricity and triggering street protests across the island, the most visible civil unrest in years. Partial restoration occurred on March 18 after 29 hours, but the blackout deepened shortages of food, medicine, and water, including the vandalization of a Cuban Communist Party provincial office in Morón. On March 21, Cuba blocked a US Embassy request to import diesel for generators, escalating diplomatic tensions amid ongoing rolling blackouts.

Updated 4 days ago

Force in Play

As of May 2026: Acquired 300+ attack drones from Russia and Iran per Axios; Díaz-Canel warned US attack would cause a 'bloodbath'; Pentagon developing military options as USS Nimitz patrols the Caribbean; June 5 GAESA deadline two weeks away

The USS Nimitz carrier strike group entered the Caribbean on May 21. The Pentagon was developing military options for Trump while the US intelligence community mapped how Cuba would respond to an attack. One day after issuing a $100 million aid offer and indicting Raúl Castro, Secretary of State Rubio said a negotiated settlement was unlikely.

Updated May 30